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Monday Night Football DFS Breakdown: Packers vs. Lions

The Packers are reeling from their embarrassing Week 1 loss against the Saints, adding extra urgency to a matchup where the divisional implications already gave them enough reason to consider the game a must-win. If their Week 1 game against San Francisco is any indication the Lions are not intimidated, though going to Lambeau Field is often challenging even for the resolute. This showdown will demonstrate just how legitimate the Packers might be, and gives the Lions a chance to herald the end of Green Bay's reign in the NFC North. Of course, the Packers are heavy favorites for a reason. The O/U is 48.5 with the Packers favored by 11.5 as of press time.

QUARTERBACKS

Aaron Rodgers ($11400 DK, $16000 FD) likely feels as much pressure as any quarterback in Week 2. Luckily for him and his fantasy investors, Rodgers is likely able to withstand that pressure and channel it into a strong performance here. The Lions defense was carved up by Jimmy Garoppoloin Week 1, surrendering a huge game to Deebo Samuel in particular, and Rodgers has more ammo to work with than Garoppolo did. Perhaps Rodgers won't be on the cashing showdown teams, but if so it would probably be from the game getting out of hand early rather than failure on Rodgers' own part. He has the personnel advantage and failure isn't an option. His main concern is managing the pass rush with left tackle David Bakhtiari out.

Jared Goff ($10000 DK, $14500 FD) didn't exactly exceed expectations on a per-play basis in Week 1 – completing 66.7 percent of his passes at 5.9 yards per attempt – but running 92 plays on offense has a way of alleviating such ills. Of course, Goff and company can't bank on that kind of snap count volume in any game going forward. Normally you don't have a prayer at 92 snaps unless you're talking at least one overtime, so Goff needs to be more efficient. The Week 1 Packers defense was certainly accommodating toward this, allowing Jameis Winston to throw five touchdowns on just 20 attempts, and it's possible that the Packers defense is headed for an era of decline. It's just as possible, though, that their Week 1 showing didn't mean much beyond the short-term failure, and if they correct in Week 2 it will have to be at Goff's expense. No Za'Darius Smith is a helpful absence, but Goff is without WR1 Tyrell Williams (concussion) himself.


RUNNING BACKS

Aaron Jones ($10400 DK, $12500 FD) went down with the rest of the Green Bay offense in Week 1, producing just 22 yards from scrimmage in one of the worst games of his career. The Lions allowed Elijah Mitchell to run for 104 yards and a touchdown on 19 carries in Week 1, so Jones is in a good spot to bounce back with the Packers favored by double digits. If the Packers cover it might entail a good game not just for Jones, but maybe also A.J. Dillon ($3000 DK, $7000 FD). Dillon couldn't get anything going in Green Bay's Week 1 collapse, but he can definitely run and there's a chance he'll get the opportunity to prove it here, especially if the Packers establish a safe lead. If it gets truly out of hand we might even see Kylin Hill ($200 DK, $5500 FD) get some work.

The Lions backfield will feature two prominent contributors: D'Andre Swift ($8400 DK, $12000 FD) and Jamaal Williams ($7200 DK, $10500 FD). The Revenge Game narrative will be tempting for Williams as he returns to face the team he left in free agency, and he was highly effective in Week 1, producing 54 yards and a touchdown on nine carries while turning nine targets into eight receptions for 56 yards. With that said, Swift played almost twice as many snaps in Week 1, logging 63 snaps to Williams' 32. Jermar Jefferson ($200 DK, $5000 FD) is hanging around as the third back.

WIDE RECEIVERS AND TIGHT ENDS

Davante Adams ($11800 DK, $15000 FD) was the only Packers player to approach usefulness in Week 1, producing five receptions for 56 yards on seven targets in 40 snaps. This is a blowup spot for the star receiver, who has lost time to make up for at home, as a heavy favorite. In a game where Aaron Rodgers projects well, the Green Bay pass catchers look good across the board. Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($5600 DK, $8000 FD) and Allen Lazard ($4800 DK, $8500 FD) are the starters alongside Adams, and they both project well in terms of matchup. MVS generally owns the downfield region, while Lazard gets more slot snaps and thus more opportunities to contribute underneath and in the intermediate. Robert Tonyan ($6400 DK, $10000 FD) was a per-target monster in 2020, so perhaps he'll get on track here after his four targets from Week 1 produced just two catches for eight yards. Randall Cobb ($2000 DK, $6500 FD) should be the first off-the-bench wideout for the Packers, while Marcedes Lewis ($800 DK, $5500 FD) looms as an occasional but infrequent threat at tight end.

Even if Tyrell Williams (concussion) were active, T.J. Hockenson ($9600 DK, $11000 FD) would still project as the leading pass catcher for the Lions. With Williams out, that assumption becomes safer yet. The Packers were stingy against opposing tight ends in 2020 – conceding the seventh-fewest fantasy points per game to the position – but Hockenson's usage and abilities might outclass that category. Kalif Raymond ($4400 DK, $8000 FD) uses his speed to clear out space for Hockenson, and he provides a legitimate deep threat if the defense doesn't take him seriously. Raymond showed up on the injury report Saturday with a thigh issue, though, and if he can't play it would make the whole Detroit offense look different. Raymond clears out space not just for Hockenson and Swift in the passing game, but also Quintez Cephus ($3800 DK, $7500 FD) and Amon-Ra St. Brown ($2400 DK, $7500 FD). Trinity Benson ($1000 DK, $6000 FD) is the only other speed threat if Raymond is out or limited. Darren Fells ($1400 DK, $5500 FD) has the chance to chip in as the TE2.

KICKERS

Mason Crosby ($4000 DK, $9000 FD) is an interesting kicker option as a heavy home favorite. The 49ers attempted three field goals and five extra points with Robbie Gould in Week 1, so the Lions might prove to be one of the most kicker-friendly defenses this year. Austin Seibert ($3600 DK, $8500 FD) is handling the kicks for the Lions. A close game would suit him better, though a close game appears mostly unlikely.

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

Even at his worst, Jared Goff doesn't generally turn the ball over at a rapid rate. His career high of 16 interceptions in 2019 occurred on 626 attempts, and against the 49ers in Week 1 he threw only one interception on 57 attempts. Still, if the spread holds up in this game then Goff will likely feel situational pressure at the very least, and that can bring the worst out of a quarterback. Lambeau can get rowdy when the crowd smells blood, so if Goff falters the Packers ($5000 DK) could make the most of the situation. It's more difficult to imagine a scenario where the Lions ($2800 DK) make much happen on defense.




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