top of page

Monday Night Football Picks: Betting Odds, Bets and Player Props

Los Angeles Rams @ San Francisco 49ers for Week 4

San Francisco 49ers -1.5 vs. Los Angeles Rams (FanDuel)

Good home spot for the 49ers and their top-ranked defense, who rank 1st in pass defense and 2nd in rush defense. While that has remained pretty constant since I picked the 49ers over the Rams in the NFC Championship game last year, the Rams have clearly dropped off, now ranking 27th in total offense at 306.3 yards per game. The 49ers have lost their starting QB/RB combination with Trey Lance and Elijah Mitchell both gone, but suffer little to no dropoff at those positions with Jimmy G. and Jeff Wilson. Meanwhile, aside from Cooper Kupp, the 49ers also have a nice edge at the receiving positions with Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle. They've also had great success vs. Rams QB Matthew Stafford, intercepting him five times over their three meetings last year. On that front, Stafford himself has thrown five interceptions over his three games this year. Give me the 49ers in this nationally-televised primetime home game.

NFL Best Bet for 49ers-Rams: 49ers -1.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook)

49ers vs. Rams Player Props to Target

Matthew Stafford over 0.5 interceptions, -125 (DraftKings)

As mentioned above, it seems likely that Stafford will throw an interception at some point tonight. I'd prefer the juice were a little lower, but I still think -125 is a reasonable price to take on this outcome. I would guess Stafford might be closer to -150 to throw a pick in this spot. I'll be surprised if he doesn't throw one.

Brandon Aiyuk over 50.5 receiving yards, -110 (FanDuel)

As mentioned in this column previously, I think there's value to be had on Brandon Aiyuk, as he continues to be listed lower than his more highly-regarded teammate Deebo Samuel, despite the fact that Aiyuk is getting more receiving work with Deebo spending much of his time in the rushing game. Aiyuk is also one of the best in the league at breaking big plays, now having logged a 25+ yard reception in seven of his last ten games. Obviously, just one of those would get him halfway to the total, and perhaps a good bit closer.

Brandon Aiyuk longest reception over 21.5 yards, -114 (FanDuel)

As pointed out above, Aiyuk consistently covers this number, and just missed last week with his long gainer coming in at 20 yards. FWIW, Aiyuk missed on both his yardage prop and his longest reception prop last week vs. Denver, but that seemed very fluky, with Aiyuk already having collected 39 yards and a touchdown halfway through the first quarter before never catching another pass. Also note that Aiyuk posted long plays of 31, 31, and 21 yards in his three meetings vs. the Rams last year. This is a very likely result at a very reasonable price.

Deebo Samuel anytime touchdown, +130 (DraftKings)

Deebo has started off a little slow in the TD department this year, getting into the end zone just once so far. That said, he remains the 49ers' top option when they get near the goal line, and note that he scored four touchdowns over his three games vs. the Rams last year. And much like Aiyuk, Deebo is clearly capable of busting a long play at any time. Good value on the 49ers' top playmaker finding the end zone tonight.

Brandon Aiyuk anytime touchdown, +195 (FanDuel)

Not only does this price represent good value in a bubble, I think it plays well in combination with the Deebo TD, as it seems very likely at least one of them will score tonight (at which point you're freerolling into the second TD, with a decent profit already locked in. Similar dynamic to the Chase/Higgins situation I mentioned last Thursday Night, only with better prices attached.

33 views0 comments


bottom of page