Celtics at Heat under 207 points (-110)
FanDuel, 2:12 PM CT
These teams combined for 225 points in Game 1, so today's 207 over/under represents quite a drop. I'm on the under, though. The opening game felt uncharacteristically frantic from both sides. That was represented in the live-ball turnovers and fast-break opportunities leading to easy buckets for both teams. In Game 1, Boston and Miami combined to add 17.4 points per 100 possessions in transition play. During the regular season, that combined number was just 4.9 points. Getting Al Horford and Marcus Smart back should also help the Celtics play better defense – much needed after the Heat torched the Celtics for 112.2 points per 100 halfcourt possessions (88th percentile in the playoffs). Ultimately, I'm expecting both teams to clean things up in what should look more like halfcourt rockfight in Game 2.
Boston Celtics win (1-10) +195 at Miami Heat
Even if Al Horford misses a second straight game, and even with Derrick Whitesidelined, I like Boston's chances to bounce back and even the series before heading back home. We saw the Celtics drop Game 1 against Milwaukee and rebound with an impressive Game 2 showing, and it's important to keep in mind that Boston was the better team in Game 1 – with the exception of that disastrous third quarter.
Jayson Tatum over 41.5 points + rebounds + assists (-105)
DraftKings, 1:15 PM CT
This one is slightly shaded toward the under (-125), but I actually think it's a fairly friendly number – and one that Tatum has topped six times already this postseason, including in Game 1.