Best Bets
Bam Adebayo over 3.5 assists (+104)
'm expecting Denver to remain in a drop coverage with Jokic sagging into the paint while covering Adebayo. Assuming that's the case, coach Erik Spoelstra figures to put Adebayo into hand-off actions to get three-point shooters open. Adebayo is averaging 3.8 assists in the playoffs and had 15 total in the final three games against Boston.
Jimmy Butler over 27.5 points (+100) and under 2.5 turnovers (-140)
FanDuel, 3:21 PM CT
Butler's points prop is shaded toward the under at essentially every sportsbook, but I'm leaning the other way. Butler loves the mid-range, and that's the shot Denver wants to give up on every possession. I think he'll also try attacking Jokic to bait him into fouls. In terms of turnovers, Butler has been under three turnovers in five straight games, and the Nuggets have the lowest DTOV% (11.7) of any playoff team this postseason.
Nuggets 1Q spread (-3)
Denver loves using the altitude to its advantage, and that makes even more sense here against a Heat that's coming off a hard-fought series. The Nuggets will presumably look to fly up and down the court with fresh legs to begin the game, and I think Miami may struggle to keep up.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope first to 10 points (+3,000)
This is a shockingly long number for someone who can catch fire from three at any given moment and is a high-chemistry passing target for Nikola Jokic. Over his past five playoff games, he's averaging 16.0 points per game and has two 21-point efforts. I also strongly endorse the KCP over 1.5 threes (-145) prop, which Nick touches on later in the article. He loves the corner three -- one of Miami's weak points as a defense.
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Kentavious Caldwell-Pope O1.5 made threes (-145)
KCP's line always seems to settle at 1.5, and I'll continue to ride it as he enters the Finals having hit multiple threes in five straight games.
Nikola Jokic to have a triple-double (-110)
Not only is Jokic favored to post what would be his sixth triple-double in the last eight games, but he's also -125 to average a triple-double for the series. Completely ludicrous, but Jokic is already doing it for the playoffs and is showing no signs of slowing down.
One series-long bet I like: Jamal Murray to lead the Finals in total points at +250. Obviously, Jokic and Jimmy Butler are the other contenders here, but Murray just led the Western Conference Finals in scoring and could very well do the same in the Finals – particularly if Miami truly sells out to slow down Jokic.
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