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NBA Best Bets Today - Free Playoffs Picks for Thursday, May 11

NBA Player Props – May 11, 2023

Malcolm Brogdon o14.5 points (-110), BetMGM

In the opening round of these playoffs, Malcolm Brogdon scored at least 14 points in each of the final four games of the series against the Atlanta Hawks. In the first four games of the second round against the Philadelphia 76ers, Brogdon scored 15 points or more. In Game 5, he amassed only seven points on an inefficient 3-for-9 shooting from the field. Tonight, the Boston Celtics will be fighting to keep their postseason hopes alive, which means all hands on deck and, theoretically, a hyper-focused effort from the team’s top contributors. Brogdon should see close to 30 minutes and double-digit shot attempts in this contest. If he has ample opportunity, he should be able to bounce back for at least 15 points in this spot – take the over.

Jaylen Brown o5.5 rebounds (-135), DraftKings

During the regular season, Jaylen Brown averaged 6.9 rebounds per game. His performance on the glass dipped in Boston’s opening-round matchup against the Atlanta Hawks, with him eclipsing this market number only twice in six games. However, he has started to see his production increase in this department again in the second round, collecting at least six boards in three of the first five games of this series. In Game 6, Brown and the Celtics will be fighting to keep their season alive. Expect Brown to play close to 40 minutes, assuming a competitive game script, which should afford him ample opportunity to eclipse this market number on Thursday night.

NBA DFS Pick’em

James Harden less than 8.5 assists, PrizePicks

James Harden proved us wrong in Game 5, delivering 10 assists in a pivotal 115-103 win for the Philadelphia 76ers. Still, it is worth questioning if Harden will have the same passive attitude on the offensive end of the floor this evening at home with a chance to help his team clinch a trip to the Eastern Conference Finals. On Tuesday, Harden attempted only eight shots from the field, which was his fewest field goal attempts in a single game since January 17. The Celtics have a tenacious defense that is capable of disrupting passing lanes and making life difficult for their opponents offensively. Nine assists could be a challenge for Harden in this spot.

Cameron Payne O8.5 points (+100) -- PointsBet, 1:00 PM CT

Cameron Payne plays better when he has the support of the home crowd. Over 48 regular season games, he shot 37.0 percent from the field on the road, but 46.3 percent at home. And as a starter, he averaged 14.9 points per game. Of course, most of those starts were without KD in the lineup. What we learned from Game 5 is that Durant and Booker are running out of gas. Someone else has to step up for the Suns, especially if DeAndre Ayton (ribs) doesn't play. Playing fast, small ball should help Payne's game. Payne has had some stinkers in this series, but I'm betting he's due to return to regular season form.

Jayson Tatum + Jaylen Brown to each score 25+ points (+133) -- FanDuel Sportsbook, 1:00 PM CT

Jayson Tatum is averaging 26.6 points per game in this series, including a seven-point outing, while Jaylen Brown is averaging 23.6 points. However, with Boston's backs against the wall, I expect the Celtics to lean into their star players to carry the scoring load. Especially considering Brown is shooting 57.1 percent from the field and 42.9 percent from three across the first five games against the 76ers, he should see an uptick in volume.

James Harden O15.5 AST+REB (+100) -- DraftKings Sportsbook, 1:00 PM CT

For most of the series, this number has been set at 14.5, but even at 15.5 I like the value for a player who's gone over 15.5 in each of the last three games. Harden is plenty capable of racking up counting stats under any circumstance, but I look at this as somewhat of a hedge if you think he has another quiet night as a scorer. In the 29 games this season (regular season and playoffs) in which Harden has failed to reach 20 points, he's tallied at least 16 AST+REB in 19 of them.

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