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🔥 NBA DFS Breakdown — Saturday Slate Edition

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Before building tonight’s lineups, make sure you’re locked in on the latest injury news. For full updates, always check RotoWire’s NBA Injury Report — what follows is a focused rundown of the most impactful spots on this slate, not the complete list.

🚑 INJURY NOTES & PIVOTS

Washington Wizards

  • Alex Sarr (thigh) – OUT

  • Khris Middleton (illness) – QUESTIONABLE

Washington is banged up everywhere, but Marvin Bagley ($5,200) is the only value I feel comfortable attacking with confidence.

Golden State Warriors

  • Stephen Curry (quad) – OUT

  • Jimmy Butler (knee) – QUESTIONABLE

  • Draymond Green (foot) – QUESTIONABLE

Green likely pushes through the injury, which keeps Brandin Podziemski ($6,600) as the best Golden State pivot.If Butler sits, things get messy — Pat Spencer ($3,900) has flashed some signs, but the situation is volatile. I’m staying away.

Cleveland Cavaliers

  • Jarrett Allen (finger) – OUT

  • Darius Garland (toe) – QUESTIONABLE

Even if Garland returns, Evan Mobley ($8,600) remains firmly in play with Allen sidelined.Jaylon Tyson ($6,000) is getting pricey, but he continues to produce in a fill-in role.

Milwaukee Bucks

  • AJ Green (shoulder) – QUESTIONABLE

  • Giannis Antetokounmpo (calf) – OUT

Expecting Green not to play unless he makes a big leap.This puts added pressure on Kyle Kuzma ($5,000) and opens potential movement for Gary Trent ($4,100) if Green gets ruled out.

Miami Heat

  • Tyler Herro (toe) – DOUBTFUL

If Herro sits, usage shifts heavily toward the remaining Miami starters. Bump everyone accordingly.

Houston Rockets

  • Alperen Sengun (illness) – QUESTIONABLE

If Sengun misses, Steven Adams ($3,800) draws the start versus Dallas — but more important Rockets plays are coming below.

💎 ELITE SPEND-UP OPTIONS

We only have two players above $10K tonight, and both come with concerns:

  • Jalen Johnson ($10,200) – Great matchup, but potential blowout risk may cap usage.

  • Cade Cunningham ($10,500) – One strong and one poor performance vs. Milwaukee already; volatile.

Not my favorite spend-up tier.

Instead, the value is right below:

Evan Mobley ($8,600)

With Allen out, the floor + ceiling combo is strong.

Anthony Edwards ($9,800)

Fantastic results against the Kings and trending upward lately.

KD ($8,100) and Amen Thompson ($8,000)

Both in play vs. MIL, but Durant has the edge thanks to a previous strong outing vs. the Bucks and a slightly higher floor.

Also consider:

  • Donovan Mitchell ($9,400) vs. GSW

  • Kawhi Leonard ($8,100) @ MIN

🔥 VALUE & CHALK TARGETS

Backcourt pricing is ugly tonight — ironically, that makes frontcourt value even stronger. Here’s where the slate naturally funnels:

Bam Adebayo – MIA ($7,700) vs SAC

Criminally priced under $8K.If Herro sits, Bam becomes the anchor on offense AND defense.Rock-solid floor with upside in boards + blocks.

DeMar DeRozan – SAC ($6,400) @ MIA

DeRozan has alternated strong and weak games, and after a down night vs Houston, he’s due for the bounce-back.Even stronger if Herro sits.Westbrook ($7,400) is also playable here.

Kyshawn George – WAS ($6,700) vs ATL

Washington is shredded by injuries, making George one of the most likely offensive spark plugs.He didn’t play in their first meeting with Atlanta, so this is a fresh matchup.Home-court boost helps.

Naz Reid – MIN ($5,900) vs LAC

Love the price, love the role.Minnesota may try to change pace vs. Zubac/Collins, giving Reid more opportunity.Clippers’ morale is down — narratives matter.

Jabari Smith – HOU ($5,700) @ DAL

Strong play if Sengun sits.Smith has standalone value, but Houston’s other weapons could siphon production if the roster is fully healthy.

Bobby Portis – MIL ($5,300) @ DET

No Giannis means Portis steps into his classic high-usage second-unit role.Cheap, productive, and historically strong in these situations.

Also Consider: Cooper Flagg – DAL ($7,100) vs HOU

Pricey for a rookie, but the kid contributes in all three categories and offers sneaky slate-breaking potential.

🏁 FINAL TAKEAWAY

Frontcourt value is loaded tonight, injuries create clear paths to minutes, and the mid-8K range (Mobley, Durant, Edwards) might be the sweet spot for roster construction.

Build smart. Monitor news. And as always —

You can’t win if you don’t lock it in. 🔒🔥

 
 
 
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