We can start off here with some immediate salary relief considering Victor Oladipo is just $4,200/$8,500/$14. Consider that he was $4,900 on DK on Friday and put up 25.25 DK points. Him then sitting out on Saturday is probably why we are seeing such a significant price drop here.
It is still rather tough to pin down exactly what to expect from Dipo on a per-minute basis. Not only has he shown some rust in the early going here, but they have so many new faces on the roster too. An early look at his rates compared to his previous seasons with the Pacers show normal usage but rather significant drops in assist rate, rebound rate, and true shooting percentage.
With Brogdon on the team this season, the dip in assist rate (25.2% last year; 15.2% so far this year) seems the most likely to sustain moving forward. As for the rebounds, that isn’t exactly what we are mainly banking on for his fantasy production anyways. I do expect it to normalize, but I am not too concerned with it either way. And the shooting should come around as he shakes some of that aforementioned rust off. So where does that leave us with him? Well, he is $4,200 on DK. Oh wait, I already mentioned that. Then how about the minutes? A few games ago, the Pacers said they were raising his minutes limit to 28. And we finally saw him come close to that on Friday, playing 27.5.
The long and short of it is, even if you are conservative with him on his rates, I think he is still the best source of salary relief on the slate if we put him at 27-28 minutes.
The next guy that is finding his way into all of my early builds is Christian Woodat $7,200/$13,400/$24. We have always known that he has been great on a per-minute basis, but the minutes have never quite been there with the presence of Andre Drummond (and others too, for that matter).
Here is what Wood has done on the season: 18.7 minutes per game, 22% usage rate, 16.8% rebound rate, 7% assist rate, 1.16 DK points per minute
Not too shabby, wouldn’t you say? Well now let’s look at his two games since Drummond left town.
February 7th at Oklahoma City: 35.25 minutes, 27.7% usage rate, 20.7% rebound rate, 27.9% assist rate, 47.9 DK points
February 8th vs. New York: 36.75 minutes, 25.3% usage rate, 19.2% rebound rate, 10% assist rate, 39.2 DK points
So to be clear, he was great on a per-minute basis already, and now everything is up even more? Yes please!
Even with Markieff Morris expected back tonight, you’d have to think that things aren’t really going to change here for Wood. The Pistons are going to want to see what they have in him. And even though his contract is up at the end of the year, the Pistons do hold his Early Bird rights.
It is crazy that we were playing this guy below $5,000 only a few weeks ago. But that just goes to prove the golden rule of NBA DFS: minutes = money.
We will stop it here for now and briefly talk about the Bucks situation. Eric Bledsoe and Khris Middleton have been in full-fledged beast mode with Giannis off of the court this season. Bledsoe is at 1.44 FD / 1.49 DK points per minute (321-minute sample), while Middleton has been at 1.39 FD / 1.47 DK points per minute (488-minute sample).
The splits tell a similar story…
Bledsoe: 29.98 FD / 30.5 DK points per game in 42 games with Giannis; 50.9 FD / 53.38 DK points per game in 2 games without Giannis
Middleton: 34.11 FD / 35.51 DK points per game in 41 games with Giannis; 47.65 FD / 50.13 DK points per game in 4 games without Giannis
If the big fella is going to be out tonight celebrating the birth of his baby, these guys are going to be integral pieces for cash games.
Oh, and let’s not forget that we have eight other games to be mindful of, so who knows what else might pop up. We also have guys like Kyle Lowry and Deandre Ayton questionable. It is safe to say that this slate is nowhere near set in stone yet.