top of page

NBA Eastern Conference Finals Expert Picks

Jimmy Butler over 26.5 points (-118) at Celtics

FanDuel, 12:42 PM CT

Butler is averaging 35 points in this series, and he's been a high-volume scorer all playoffs. He's averaging 29.8 points in the postseason, and I'm not sure who else Miami can trust. Herro is up-and-down while Gabe Vincent, Max Strus and PJ Tucker have almost exclusively been three-point shooters. Bam Adebayo has been passive as well. I think Butler will continue to be the driving force of the offense and will often have to take things into his own hands when no one else is able to get things going.

Kyle Lowry's potential return could scare people off this line – as well as Butler's 4.5 assists prop – but Butler has actually performed better in the postseason with Lowry on the court. Compared to Lowry off the court, Butler takes 1.4 more field-goal attempts and dishes 0.5 more assists per 36 minutes with the point guard on the floor.

And if you're looking for something riskier with more upside, I'm intrigued by both Butler 25+ points, 8+ rebounds and 6+ assists at +534, and Butler 30+ points, 10+ rebounds and 8+ assists at +3248.


Bam Adebayo under 23.5 points + rebounds (-115)

FanDuel, 12:59 PM CT

In the past four games, Adebayo has averaged just 9.5 points and 6.8 rebounds. And the low scoring isn't just a product of bad shooting, he's averaging just 5.5 field-goal attempts per game during this stretch. He was able to get to the free-throw line for five attempts in Game 1, which helped him reach 10 points, but he scored just six in Game 2. Miami hasn't been doing a great job searching out mismatches for Adebayo, and he probably isn't going to get the best of an offensive attempt against Al Horford or Robert Williams consistently. Maybe that changes in Game 3, but it's a bit concerning there hasn't been an effort to get him more involved before this point.

Having Lowry on the court hasn't mattered for Adebayo this postseason either. In that scenario, he's -0.3 FGA and -2.1 REB per 36 minutes. Interestingly, though, he's +2.0 assists per 36, so a flier bet on over 2.5 assists (+118) could be sneaky if Lowry is in.

23 views0 comments

Comments


bottom of page