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NBA Expert Picks Tonight: Game 5 of Mavericks vs. Warriors

Warriors to win (-294) vs. Mavericks

BetMGM, 4:03 PM CT

This is the second night in a row that I'm going with the chalky selection, but Golden State's near-comeback in the fourth quarter of Game 4 felt ominous, like some sort of warning. That's not basketball analysis, but we all know what the gentleman's sweep entails. It's just a bad sign when you hold Steph Curry and Klay Thompson to 32 points and you get a combined 41 points out of Dorian Finney-Smith and Reggie Bullock, and you still have to truly defend a 10-point lead at the end of the game.

Dorian Finney-Smith O5.5 rebounds (+110) at Warriors

DraftKings Sportsbook, 12:30 PM CT

Nick Whalen: We hit this same prop at the same value in Game 4, and the DraftKings Sportsbook is begging us to come back for more. Finney-Smith only grabbed six boards in 39 minutes, but for the first time this series – and for just the fourth time in 17 playoff games – he failed to pull down a single offensive board. We'll likely have to sweat this out again, but considering that he's locked into a 40-ish-minute role, I like Finney-Smith's chances to get four or five defensive boards and a couple of offensive rebounds. In Games 1 through 3, Finney-Smith had 10 combined offensive boards.

Golden State Warriors -7.0 (-110) vs. Dallas Mavericks

DraftKings Sportsbook, 12:30 PM CT

Nick Whalen: The Warriors let Game 4 get away from them, and while they were able to claw back in the fourth quarter, it was too little too late. I expect to see a more-focused Golden State outfit at home, where the Warriors are 8-0 in the postseason with six of those eight wins coming by at least nine points.

Golden State Warriors -6.5 over Dallas Mavericks

BetMGM, 2pm ET

Ken Crites: When the Mavs won Game 4 in Dallas, they hit 20-of-43 threes (46.5%). I just can NOT imagine them doing that again on the road. There is no way Reggie Bullock hits six threes again. The veteran Warriors know they need to close out this series to rest up for the Finals. Look for the Warrior defense to tighten and for Curry to have a big game at home.

Warriors Team Total O111.5 (-115)

DraftKings, 3:32 PM CT

Charlie Dern: After Game 3, Curry and the Warriors spoke about how important it is to get the job done, finish the series, and get some rest. Though they weren't able to complete the sweep, the Warriors return home looking to finish off the Mavs in front of their home crowd. The Warriors have reached 110+ in nine of 15 playoff games thus far, five of those games happening at the Chase Center. The Mavs had their fun defending home court in Game 4, and I think the Warriors roll, making a statement heading into the NBA Finals. If the Warriors can keep this game at a high tempo, they can easily hit this over.

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