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NBA Player Props – Bucks vs. Heat, April 22, 2023

NBA Player Props – Bucks vs. Heat, April 22, 2023

Jrue Holiday o17.5 points (-110), BetMGM

According to props.cash, Jrue Holiday has eclipsed this market number in nine of the last 11 games in which he has played with Giannis Antetokounmpo out of the lineup. In each of the first two games of this series, Holiday has attempted no fewer than 18 shot attempts or played fewer than 33 minutes. Even if Antetokounmpo suits up this evening, Holiday, who averaged 19.3 points per game during the regular season, should have an excellent opportunity to cash this ticket considering the extremely high scoring nature of this matchup through the first two games. Take the over.


Giannis Antetokounmpo o26.5 points (-125), BetMGM

If Giannis Antetokounmpo is deemed healthy enough to play tonight, this is a market number that makes little sense. According to props.cash, Giannis Antetokounmpo eclipsed this market number in 44 of his 63 games played overall during the regular season, including 18 of 31 games played on the road. This year, Antetokounmpo averaged 20.3 shot attempts per game – 14.5 of which came in the restricted area or the paint. The Miami Heat ranked 26th in opponent field goal percentage in the restricted area and 30th in opponent field goal percentage in the paint this season. Across the last 30 days of the regular season, the Heat ranked 30th in opponent field goal percentage in both areas of the floor. Antetokounmpo has averaged more than 30 points per game in each of the last two postseasons. His health is obviously a major concern, but this number is simply too low if he plans to give it a go on Saturday.


NBA DFS Pick’em

Jimmy Butler less than 28.5 points, PrizePicks

Jimmy Butler is a different type of player once the postseason rolls around, but this market number is still far too high for a player who averaged only 22.9 points per game during the regular season. During the 2021-2022 playoffs, Butler increased his aggressiveness substantially, relative to the regular season, but still only averaged 27.4 points across 17 postseason contests. The pace of play through the first two games of this series is unsustainable with so much on the line. Expect the Milwaukee Bucks to turn up the defensive effort tonight and to force someone other than Butler to beat them.


NBA Player Props – Grizzlies vs. Lakers, April 22, 2023

Anthony Davis o22.5 points (-125), BetMGM

In two games to begin this series, Anthony Davis has not eclipsed this market even once. However, he has played at least 37 minutes in both contests and attempted no fewer than 14 field goals in either game, offering hope that a bounce back performance could be in store for Saturday night. During the regular season, Davis averaged 23.8 points per game in 31 home contests. The Memphis Grizzlies will once again be without Steven Adams and Brandon Clarke in this matchup, which should afford Davis every opportunity to have a strong performance, with self-inflicted inefficiency being the primary risk factor. Trust him to get the job done in this spot.


Desmond Bane u23.5 points (-125), PointsBet

During the regular season, Desmond Bane averaged only 21.5 points per game. When playing on the road, Bane averaged fewer points per game and was less efficient from the field and from the three-point line. He averaged slightly less free throw attempts per game on the road as well. In Game 1 of this series, Bane had 22 points on an inefficient 18 shot attempts. In Game 2, Bane had 17 points on an inefficient 18 shot attempts. The potential absence of Ja Morant in this spot has inflated Bane’s points prop here, but not for good reason. Bane is best utilized as a secondary scoring option within an offense, rather than as a primary creator of his own shot. The under has great value as of this writing.


NBA DFS Pick’em

LeBron James less than 22.5 field goal attempts, PrizePicks

We cashed this look in Game 1 with the market number at 23.5 field goal attempts. In Game 2, we took a loss on this prop, but the result was not enough to discourage us from running it back for Game 3. Last time LeBron James played in the postseason before 2023, he attempted fewer than 23 field goal attempts in five of the six games that he played against the Phoenix Suns. In 21 playoff games the year before, James attempted fewer than 23 field goal attempts in 17 games. Following an extended absence near the end of the regular season this year, James returned to the court near the end of March, and then attempted 21 or fewer shots in six of his final eight regular season games for the Los Angeles Lakers. James had 16 field goal attempts in Game 1 of this series and 23 field goal attempts in Game 2 of this series. We like our chances that he attempts 22 or fewer in Game 3, with him being able to rely on his supporting cast even more in his home building.

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