NBA Player Props – Kings vs. Warriors, April 28, 2023
De’Aaron Fox o26.5 points (-115), FanDuel
In five games to begin these playoffs, De’Aaron Fox is averaging 30.0 points on 43.0% shooting from the field. In those five games, he has scored no fewer than 24 points or taken fewer than 22 shots from the field. Similar to Game 5 when Fox’s point total was listed at over/under 24.5, the reason that his market number is so low on Friday is due to a fractured left index finger, which reportedly would have caused him to miss multiple weeks of action if he suffered this injury during the regular season, according to The Athletic. Still, when asked about his pain level prior to Wednesday’s contest, Fox commented that he does not really have issues unless the finger gets hit on something. Fox struggled with his efficiency in Game 5, shooting 9-for-25 from the field. However, he still had 25 shot attempts and that volume is unlikely to regress much, if at all, with the season on the line. Assuming Fox is slightly more comfortable with his limitations tonight after playing 42 minutes with the injury on Wednesday, he is poised to go over this market number this evening – even if it takes a lot of field goal attempts.
Jordan Poole o1.5 three-pointers made (-150), PointsBet
Jordan Poole has seen his playing time fall off dramatically in this series, averaging only 23.0 minutes per game. Still, Poole is averaging 5.4 three-point attempts per game, with roughly half of his total field goal attempts coming from beyond the arc. In Game 3 at home, Poole connected on only one shot from beyond the arc, but he took seven shots – inefficiency simply killed this play. In Game 4 at home, Poole knocked down two three-pointers on six attempts. Poole is never going to be the most efficient player in the league, but he was a much better player at home during the regular season and that should continue again tonight. Even in a limited role, this market number is simply too low for someone who will likely have at least six shot attempts from distance. Take the over.
NBA DFS Pick’em
Klay Thompson more than 23.5 points, PrizePicks
During the regular season, Klay Thompson averaged 24.4 points per game on 42.4% shooting from the floor at home, compared to 19.2 points per game on 39.6% shooting when playing on the road. After an uncharacteristically inefficient performance at home in Game 3 in which Thompson shot 5-for-15 from the field, he responded with 26 points in Game 4 at the Chase Center. Tonight, Thompson should once again be looking at strong volume from the floor. If he can be reasonably efficient with his opportunities, he could threaten for 30 points here.