NBA Top Plays 1/24/20

THE CORE

1) Dewayne Dedmon, Sacramento Kings

FanDuel: $3,900, C DraftKings: $4,600, C Yahoo: $10, C FantasyDraft: $9,500, F/C

I hate starting out a “must play in cash games” article with a guy who has been poo-poo’d by his own team/organization so much that he was grabbing DNP-CD’s not long after signing a fruitful three-year deal with them. But this Kings team is down their two best big men (both Bagley and Holmes are listed as OUT), and Dedmon started in this exact same situation on Wednesday and played 31 minutes.

The thing is, he is cheap enough around the industry that we don’t even need to project him to play that many minutes again for him to be great for our cash game lineups. He has hovered around being a fantasy point-per-minute player throughout his career.

It is worth noting that the per-minute production has been a little down in this bumpy first season with the Kings, although I don’t exactly project that to be the case moving forward considering his usage rate and rebound rate have actually been higher this season than they were last season with the Hawks when he got 1.08 FD / 1.07 DK points per minute. This matchup should smooth out a lot of that guesswork anyways, as the Bulls actually rank dead last in defensive efficiency against opposing centers.

There is enough uncertainty with this situation in general that I would prefer to have something much safer pop up in the news cycle later today. Dedmon is SO cheap on FD/Y though that he is going to pop as one of the best cheap plays regardless. I am not jumping for joy at the $4,600 price tag on DK, but he’s also the best source of salary relief that we have on that site, in my opinion, as it stands right now. I definitely want confirmation that he is starting once again, but it is unclear if we get that information in time with the game starting one hour after lock. For now, he gets the tag in LineupHQ.

(Tournament pivot: Paying up at this loaded position is easily my favorite pivot in tournaments. On FD, I am looking at guys like Andre Drummond, Karl-Anthony Towns, and Deandre Ayton. If you want someone to pivot to that is in Dedmon’s price range, I will offer up Willie Cauley-Stein at $4,200. On DK, I really like Myles Turner at $4,900 as a direct pivot off of Dedmon. He has averaged 31 minutes per game in 12 games without Brogdon, and his FPPM rate spikes as well. In fact, the more I look at him, the more I like him in cash games too. If you want high-end pivots on DK, I think I like Nikola Jokic the best at $9,700.)

FANDUEL-SPECIFIC PLAY

Ricky Rubio, Phoenix Suns

FanDuel: $5,700, PG DraftKings: $7,300, PG Yahoo: $28, PG FantasyDraft: $13,500, G

If you don’t like rostering players that are coming off arguably one of their worst fantasy performances of the season, then you should probably avert your gaze. But holy hell, $5,700 on FD for Rubio is just waaayyyyy too cheap!

There is no doubting that he (and the rest of the Suns) was bad on Wednesday. Not that it would have mattered anyways based on what he had done up to that point from a fantasy perspective, but he lost about the last six minutes of playing time due to the blowout; that certainly didn’t help his cause. But you all should know by now that I take a longer look at things and look at these as buy-low opportunities more than anything else. $5,700 just so happens to be his cheapest price on FD all season.


The math certainly is telling us to buy, buy, buy right now. A 20.6% usage rate and 40.7% assist rate have resulted in him getting 1.08 FD points per minute this season. And while he has averaged ‘just’ 32.2 minutes per game, look at where the minutes have landed in the seven games before that Pacers debacle:

37 35 34.5 34.25 35.5 36 35.5

If that isn’t enough to have you wiping off the stink of 13.9 FD points, then maybe the matchup will do the trick? Not only do the Spurs rank 23rd in overall team defensive efficiency, but they rank 25th against opposing point guards.

Could he have another dud tonight? Sure, everyone is subject to those from time to time. But this guy (picture me at my desk pointing two thumbs at myself…ok nevermind don’t do that please) will be buying low and locking him in on FD unless some news drastically changes the landscape of the slate.

(Tournament pivot: Even with Reggie Jackson back, Andre Drummondexpected to play, and Bruce Brown and Tim Frazier possibly active, I STILL like rolling with Derrick Rose in tournaments at $6,900. He likely continues to stick in the starting lineup, as his play has spoken for itself. And the minutes have slowly started creeping up as the season has progressed, which just gives him even more opportunity to hit his ceiling. I am very curious to see where Projected Ownership lands on him should the Pistons have most of these guys back tonight (sans Griffin and Kennard of course). The matchup is great, as Memphis has struggled all year with opposing backcourts and plays at an extremely fast pace.)

GENERAL SLATE THOUGHTS

There is just so much uncertainty on this slate, that I am hesitant to dive any deeper than this. Have a look at some of the situations we are monitoring, and keep in mind that this isn’t factoring in anything random that pops up.

Boston: We already know Enes Kanter is out, but Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum are also listed as questionable. Boston has probably been the best team all season about ruling out guys early in the day, so we should have this information by late morning or early afternoon.

Atlanta: Trae Young is listed as questionable after missing that game on Wednesday. Jeff Teague let us all down AGAIN, underwhelming so impressively that the Hawks closed with Brandon Goodwin over him.

OKC: Steven Adams is listed as questionable. Nerlens Noel again anybody?

Denver: Gary Harris and Michael Porter are listed as questionable. These guys missed Wednesday’s game (along with Murray, Plumlee, and Millsap, who are already OUT for tonight), and the Nuggets essentially went with eight guys before waiving the white flag late. This is the perfect example of just waiting on some news before getting married to a play. If all of these guys are out again, who would we like more on DK: Nikola Jokic at $9,700 or Andre Drummond at $9,500? Decisions, decisions, decisions.

Miami: Not to be outdone by these other teams, all of Jimmy Butler, Goran Dragic, AND Kendrick Nunn are listed as questionable for the Heat! If all three of these guys are out, I will sing the chorus of “Herro”

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