NFL game stacks to target for DFS GPPs in Week 7

HIGH-OWNED OPTIONS

DETROIT LIONS @ ATLANTA FALCONS

The Falcons continue to be involved in matchups that produce optimal game stacks. Week 7 is no different, with the highest total game happening in Atlanta. This number has dropped 1.5 points since the open, behind 78% of the cash on the under. PFF Greenline sees this as an overcorrection, with value opening up on the over. This is a strong indication that we could see more points than current market projections, which indicates numerous unaccounted-for opportunities to score fantasy points. 

Oct 5, 2020; Green Bay, Wisconsin, USA; Atlanta Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan (2) throws a pass in the first quarter against the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field. Credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports

Our predictive model sees this as the second-most likely game to produce the top-scoring wide receiver and the fourth-most likely game to produce the top-scoring quarterback. Numerous playable options exist, but like last week, identifying the right ones will be key to GPP success. 


  • Matt Ryan (DK $6,700, FD $7,800)

  • Julio Jones (DK $7,100 FD $8,300)

  • Calvin Ridley (DK $7,300 FD $8,400)

  • Kenny Golladay (DK $6,700 FD $7,600)

Remaining Roster Average DK $4,440 FD $5,580

The three-player game stack above minus Calvin Ridley projects to be the highest-owned core on the main slate. Adding in Ridley should differentiate this lineup, but it still might require unearthing one other lower-owned player at a different position to ensure your lineup is unique. The Falcons lead the NFL in total air yards through six weeks. There is no greater — or more obvious— team to include in a game stack for DFS.

  • Matthew Stafford (DK $6,500, FD $7,300)

  • Kenny Golladay (DK $6,700 FD $7,600)

  • Marvin Jones Jr. (DK $4,400 FD $5,700)

  • Julio Jones (DK $7,100 FD $8,300)

Remaining Roster Average DK $5,060 FD $6,220

The other side of this matchup offers a lesser-owned game stack option at a reduced salary. Both Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones Jr. are popping up in the wide receiver blowup model, which makes this an appealing game stack option. There is no clear answer for the run-it-back stack, but Julio Jones popped off last week, so going back to the well with him is a viable choice. Calvin Ridley offers similar upside, and Russell Gage is popping up as a low-priced option in the blowup model. 

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS @ ARIZONA CARDINALS

Thanks to some schedule reshuffling, we once again have the Sunday night matchup on the main slate of DFS action. It has the second-highest total of the slate and appears to be ripe with fantasy opportunities. This game is one of only two totals that hasn’t moved down compared to the opening week line — which is a worthwhile indication that the market projects this game to be high-scoring. 

Our predictive model labels it the third-most likely game to have the top-scoring fantasy wide receiver. PFF Greenline leans slightly toward the over, which sides with the skew of the cash and ticket percentages on the over. This makes it the perfect opportunity to target a game stack. 

  • Kyler Murray (DK $7,100, FD $8,400)

  • DeAndre Hopkins (DK $8,200 FD $9,000)

  • Christian Kirk (DK $4,900 FD $5,400)

  • D.K. Metcalf (DK $7,200 FD $7,300)

Remaining Roster Average DK $4,520 FD $5,980

This is another bank-breaking stack option, with Christian Kirk offering much-needed salary relief. The Cardinals' two-wide receiver stack will be low-owned due to Kyler Murray's rushing ability, which caps the pass-catching opportunities if he continues to default to scrambling when under pressure.

Three of his six rushing touchdowns have been in goal-to-go situations, which also pull resources away from his pass-catchers. We are looking for outlier performances that run slightly counter to conventional wisdom. Murray has the ability to be productive with his arm, so when that game finally occurs, it will be to the benefit of multiple receivers in this offense. 

  • Russell Wilson (DK $8,000, FD $8,700)

  • D.K. Metcalf (DK $7,200 FD $7,300)

  • Christian Kirk (DK $4,900 FD $5,400)

Remaining Roster Average DK $4,983 FD $6,433

If we sub in DeAndre Hopkins for Christian Kirk, we could easily be looking at the highest-owned stack on the slate. It is obviously a worthwhile play, but it forces DFS players to unearth a low-priced gem at the running back position. My preferred approach is to bank on the Cardinals' No. 2 receiver who offers affordable savings with sky-high upside based on his average depth of target. Russell Wilson and D.K. Metcalf are plug-and-play options at this point but could also be differentiated by including Tyler Lockett.

GREEN BAY PACKERS @ HOUSTON TEXANS

Things look promising from the highest-scoring game, according to current totals. This number actually moved up one point since the open, with 59% of the cash and 68% of the tickets on the over. This typically indicates a move based on public bettors, but given the high percentage of cash, this could simply be a spot where the market found a mispriced line. PFF Greenline tends to agree, giving this over .4% value at the current number. 

Green Bay Packers wide receiver Davante Adams (17) pulls down a long reception against Minnesota Vikings cornerback Holton Hill (24) in the fourth quarter during their football game Sunday, September 13, 2020, at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, Minn. Green Bay won 43-34.

This is the game that is most likely to produce the highest-scoring quarterback and wide receiver on the slate. This is fairly obvious to everyone. The one real concern at this point is ownership, but utilizing a few unique builds should be more than enough to separate your lineups from the rest of the crowd. 

  • Aaron Rodgers (DK $7,000, FD $8,100)

  • Davante Adams (DK $7,900 FD $8,900)

  • Marquez Valdes-Scantling (DK $4,100 FD $5,400)

  • Brandin Cooks (DK $5,200 FD $5,900)

Remaining Roster Average DK $5,160 FD $6,340

Most DFS players could move off the Packers after a disappointing performance against the Buccaneers. This is an opportunity to get one of the best passing attacks in the NFL at reduced ownership against one of the NFL’s worst defenses. Marquez Valdes-Scantling is quickly turning into my favorite play on the entire slate. Including him with Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams provides for a unique lineup build. Brandin Cooks has exploded over the past two games and offers unmatched upside at the wide receiver position. Most will look his way with Will Fuller V getting the Jaire Alexander treatment this weekend. 

  • Deshaun Watson (DK $6,800, FD $8,000)

  • Brandin Cooks (DK $5,200 FD $5,900)

  • Will Fuller V (DK $6,800 FD $6,900)

  • Marquez Valdes-Scantling (DK $4,100 FD $5,400)

Remaining Roster Average DK $5,420 FD $6,760

This is my favorite stack heading into Week 7. The inclusion of Will Fuller helps ensure a more unique build, but this is also the type of game in which he could completely disappear. Our projections anticipate Deshaun Watson as the quarterback most likely to finish with the highest fantasy point for Week 7. He offers some upside with his legs but is more than capable of providing enough opportunities for two or more pass-catching options. Including Marquez Valdes-Scantling makes this build even more unique while offering salary savings to utilize elsewhere. This core is unique enough at a low enough salary to allow any other player to fit into the remaining roster positions. 



LOW-OWNED OPTIONS

PITTSBURGH STEELERS @ TENNESSEE TITANS

The Steelers have the second-best defense, according to our opponent-adjusted defensive rankings. That has had little effect on this over, but the number has dropped down two points since the open. The cash and ticket percentages are split, with big bettors preferring the under while public bettors are pounding the over. PFF Greenline leans slightly toward the over but doesn’t offer enough value to make the bet worthwhile. It is still a worthwhile indication of preference, which makes this total appear to be slightly overcorrected. 

Our opponent-adjusted grades are high on Ryan Tannehill, which is why he pops up in a less-than-ideal situation in our model. His ownership will be low given the perceived difficult matchup, but if this game turns into a shootout, a Titans pass-catching stack could rocket up leaderboards. 

Derrick Henry will lead this game in ownership, but if we get a shootout, I want exposure to the pass-catchers. This build has the added benefit of gaining significantly on the lineups that use Henry if he ends up having a letdown game because Tannehill and A.J. Brown blow up. 

The run-it-back option in this stack is tricky, with the Steelers' injury situation still needing more clarity. Chase Claypool has produced with others out, earning the trust of Big Ben and the coaching staff. He should continue to stay involved, even if this receiving unit returns to full strength. 

  • Ryan Tannehill (DK $6,200, FD $7,300)

  • A.J. Brown (DK $6,300 FD $6,800)

  • Chase Claypool (DK $5,700 FD $6,400)

Remaining Roster Average DK $5,300 FD $6,583

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS @ LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

The YOLO game stack probably deserves its own category. There is usually one game that pops up in my model that causes me to pause and think about whether I am actually going to follow through with writing it up. Welcome to the Week 7 edition. This has helped identify some under-the-radar games previously, but with the chalk game stacks continuing to hit, this hasn’t been a viable path to the top of leaderboards.

Oct 12, 2020; New Orleans, Louisiana, USA; Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert (10) during warm ups prior to kickoff against the New Orleans Saints at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports

Blame the rise in overall scoring, but the chalk has consistently come through in 2020. If that doesn’t occur one week, then a game off the beaten path could be the one that explodes. Although it isn’t likely, this matchup comes with increased win probability if it does hit. At the end of the day, that is what DFS is really about, which makes this game an intriguing under-the-radar option for Week 7. 

Justin Herbert has received rave reviews for his early-season play. He is coming off his highest-graded passing game while maintaining an average depth of target of 11.1 yards. Keenan Allen has some injury concerns that could cause ownership to move away from him. He leads all wide receivers in targets per route run and is second in team target share. No one else offers as high of a floor with an uncapped ceiling as Allen heading into Week 7. This is, of course, barring injuries. 

  • Justin Herbert (DK $6,400, FD $7,500)

  • Keenan Allen (DK $6,200 FD $7,000)

  • Hunter Henry (DK $4,500 FD $5,800)

  • D.J. Chark Jr. (DK $5,500 FD $6,500)



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