Las Vegas Raiders -4.5 vs. Indianapolis Colts
The Raiders put Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow on IR and have lost two in a row. So why are they such big favorites? There are a few answers to that question. Jonathan Taylor isn't 100 percent and Sam Ehlinger and his 5.8 YPA is the starting quarterback. Shaquille Leonard is out for the Colts' defense and everyone is pretty sure Jeff Saturday doesn't have a clue as to what he's gotten himself into. The Raiders have won their last two at home scoring 32 and 38 points in each of those games. This was my "best bet" of the week for Staff Picks.
Seattle Seahawks +2.5 (-104) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
This game will be early Sunday morning from Munich, Germany basically making this a neutral site for the game. It's puzzling why the Seahawks are getting points (I figured this would be a pick 'em) given Tampa hasn't won a clean game since beating the Falcons at home in Week 5. The Seahawks are 6-3 and come into the game on a four-game win streak. I have to think this spread has to be the "Brady effect" but watching his games this season he looks completely out of sync with his receivers who aren't doing him any favors dropping the ball. Tampa's defense doesn't look anywhere as good as it has in the past and the run game is non-existent. Back Pete Carroll and the boys here.
Washington Commanders +10.5 at Philadelphia Eagles
I know how good the Eagles have looked this season and that they're the only remaining undefeated team. However, this is a divisional game and if I had to guess, teams getting double-digit points have done pretty well this season. While Taylor Heinicke isn't the second-coming of Joe Theismann, I have to this he's a better choice under center than Carson Wentz. Surprisingly Washington is in the middle of the league in defending both running backs and quarterbacks so they may not be overmatched by the Eagles offense. Take the points here.
Player Prop Bets for Week 10
Evan Engram OVER 37.5 Receiving Yards
I like taking players and their corresponding overs when facing the Chiefs because they're typically high-scoring affairs. I wasn't in love with the Trevor Lawrence passing prop (248.5 passing yards) and I actually like the fact that Engram had a 2-1-8 line a week ago. Looking further, Engram had had 40 or more receiving yards in the previous four games and faces a defense that is 24th against opposing tight ends. Don't overthink this one.
Justin Fields OVER 60.5 Rushing Yards
I was ready to write up taking the under here as the over seems too obvious after Fields went nuts last week against the Dolphins. However, he's gone over this mark in three of his last four games (the other game was 60 yards) so while it seems too good to be true, the number backs the over here. I have to think his rushing stats from earlier this season (52 rushing yards or less over his first five games) are still being factored in here. The difference lately has been volume; Fields averaged 8.4 rushes per game over his first five, and he's averaged 12.3 rushing attempts in his last four. Throw in the Lions aren't a great defense and the over seems like a lock.
Nick Chubb OVER 80.5 Rushing Yards
Chubb is rested after getting a week off for the Bye and the Browns are only 3.5-points underdogs in a game with an over/under of 49.5. Chubb has had 87 or more rushing yards in every game this season except for once and the only reason this number is this low is that Miami has been good against the run. This is a pick taking Chubb over the Miami defense and I would expect Chubb to see at least 17-20 rushing attempts (averaged 5.6 YPC this season) in this one.
Anytime Touchdown Props
As mentioned earlier, after Davante Adams, the Raiders will be looking to backups after placing Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow on IR. Enter Mack Hollins (+230) and Foster Moreau who will be the "next man up" in both of those spots. I like hedging and taking both players here as it's tough to read the team leaves and figure out which one will score. I'll only need one to find the end zone to profit here and there's the upside that they both score.
Diontae Johnson +190
This is probably a curious pick seeing as Johnson has exactly zero touchdowns this season. This is actually quite a feat for someone who has had 76 targets and 43 catches on the season. This week is a good opportunity for Johnson who doesn't have to face Marshon Lattimore with the Saints defense. Chase Claypool took his 6.5 targets per game to Chicago and Johnson should be good for double-digit targets here. Coming off the bye and playing at home shouldn't hurt either.
Michael Gallup +230
It's interesting in this game that both Ezekiel Elliott (-120) and Tony Pollard (-120) have the same anytime touchdown odds. I was thinking of going with CeeDee Lamb here (+110) but I'd rather gamble on Gallup and the better odds. The Packers' defense is in shambles with both Rashan Garyand Eric Stokes being the latest players to be sidelined. Coming off the bye and with Dak Prescottcompletely healthy, the Cowboys should have no problem moving the ball up and down the field.