New York Giants +7 vs. Philadelphia Eagles
I know this seems a bit crazy given how dominant the Eagles have been this season but hear me out. This is a divisional game (the Eagles only loss was to the Commanders) and the Giants have gone 4-2-1 at home this season. The two teams haven't faced each other yet so we don't really know how they match up - as a result, one would think that taking the points is the better path here. Odd as it sounds, I like that the Giants haven't won in three games (this should make them hungry, in theory) and the Eagles are coming off two wins by at least a touchdown.
Arizona Cardinals +1.5 vs. New England Patriots
I get that the Patriots are 6-6 while the Cardinals are 4-8 but I wouldn't have thought Arizona would be getting points at home in this matchup. The Cardinals are coming off their Bye week, meaning they had extra time to prepare although the Patriots did play Thursday night against the Bills. Marquise Brown gives Kyler Murray (who was banged up a few games ago and now should be 100 percent) another weapon on offense and James Conner is also back at full health after missing three games this season. My point is the Cardinals, sans Zack Ertz, have all of their weapons healthy and I can't see Mac Jones lighting them up on the way to a New England victory. I'd probably forget the points here and just take Arizona's money line at +114.
Seattle Seahawks -3.5 vs. Carolina Panthers
The only reason I hesitated here is that the Seahawks are terrible against stopping the run and Carolina loves to run D'Onta Foreman, who is averaging 4.5 yards per carry this season. However, Peter Carroll is well aware of these facts and I have to think Seattle will sell out to stop the run and make Sam Darnold beat them through the air. Seattle's offense has been fantastic this season and despite who starts at running back they'll be able to put up points at home, where they have a +20 point differential in only five games.
Player Prop Bets for Week 14
Mark Andrews OVER 55.5 Receiving Yards
Tyler Huntley will be under center this week for the Ravens and last season that meant a fantasy boom for Andrews. First, the Steelers are 17th against the position this season and Andrews went 15-8-85 when the two teams played Week 18 last season with Huntley under center. Over Huntley's five starts last season Andrews had at least 73 receiving yards in each game and had at least 10 targets in four of those five contests.
T.J. Hockenson OVER 48.5 Receiving Yards
It seems odd to take the over here given that Hockenson hasn't hit this over in four straight games. However, this is a game where Kirk Cousins has an over/under of 275.5 passing yards and this is expected to be the highest-scoring game this week. Hockenson has at least six targets in each of his last five games and I like doing a same-game parlay with him OVER 80 receiving yards (alternative receiving odds at +340) and an anytime touchdown (+190) for +647 odds.
A.J. Brown UNDER 74.5 Receiving Yards
The Giants have been the 10th best team against opposing wide receivers and I think recency bias (namely last week) has pushed this number up too high. Brown had 119 receiving yards last week against a bad Titans' secondary and faces a more difficult task on the road against New York. Brown had gone under this number in four straight games before last Sunday and averaged only 43 receiving yards in those four contests. If you're betting the Giants with the points, you might as well take the under on this prop as well.
Anytime Touchdown Props
Jamaal Williams -105
Here we have a game with an over/under of 51.5 and the Lions are actually favored to win (Detroit is -1.5). Jamaal Williams has clearly established himself as the goal-line back and has thrived in that role with a total of 14 rushing touchdowns. He's gotten double-digit carries in every game this season and scored in eight out of 12 contests. The Vikings are 23rd against opposing running backs making this a very good matchup for Williams and the Lions.
Devin Singletary +165
The Bills are 10-point favorites at home and are expected to score around 27 points in this game. This is the lowest Singletary's odds have been in a while and that's likely due to the emergence of James White. However, I think Singletary will still handle the goal line work and has touchdowns in three of his last four games. Singletary also has a receiving touchdown this season providing another potential way for him to find the end zone Sunday.
Mitchell Wilcox +480
Hayden Hurst will miss his first game of the season making Wilcox the starting tight end for Cincinnati. Joe Burrow has a passing touchdown in every game this season and has multiple passing touchdowns in eight of his 12 games this season. The Browns defense should be keyed in on stopping everyone not named Wilcox - Samaje Perine, Joe Mixon, Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higginsand Tyler Boyd. It's easy to see play-action near the goal line or open space over the middle when the Bengals are in the red zone and Wilcox getting little to no coverage.
A.J. Brown Anytime Touchdown Scorer