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NFL Player Props to Target for Wild Card Weekend



Good spot for a 2-team, 7-point teaser, as we get two of the heaviest favorites of the weekend while laying under a field goal on both games. It's hard to see either the 49ers or the Bengals (who are each legitimate Super Bowl contenders) having trouble in the opening round, particularly with Ravens QB Lamar Jackson now being ruled out for the Sunday Night game.


George Kittle over 44.5 receiving yards, -114 (FanDuel)

Kittle seems to have been featured more heavily in the 49ers' game plan since Brock Purdy took over at quarterback, and he's been particularly active of late, recording eight targets in each of his last two games. He also went off for a 4-93-2 line when facing Seattle in Week 15, as the Seahawks tend to struggle versus TE's.

George Kittle anytime touchdown, +155 (FanDuel)

In addition to his higher recent volume, note that Kittle has scored five touchdowns over his last three games, and in fact has scored four touchdowns in his last two games vs. Seattle (going back to last year). Going back to QB Brock Purdy for a moment, note that almost 40% of his touchdown passes have gone to Kittle thus far. Good value on a proposition that seems closer to a coin flip than it does the listed price.


Travis Etienne over 97.5 rushing + receiving yards, -114 (FanDuel)

Etienne looks set up for a big game here, as the Chargers' run defense ranks 28th in the league, with the Bolts allowing a league-worst 5.6 yards per carry. Etienne of course averaged 5.1 yards per carry over the course of the season, and he's been active in the passing game recently as well, tacking on an extra 25-30 yards in three of his last four games. One of the benefits to the combo prop (rush + rec) is that it provides access to all of a player's plays, which is important in the case of a big-play specialist like Etienne, who is capable of breaking a long gainer at any time.

Josh Allen over 50.5 rushing yards, -114 (FanDuel))

The Dolphins have struggled vs. mobile QB's this year, allowing 77 rushing yards to Josh Allen in their most recent matchup (including a 44-yard run), and 47 yards in their first matchup (Allen was Buffalo's leading rusher in both games). They also allowed 178 rushing yards to Justin Fields this year, as well as a 3-20 rushing performance to Kenny Pickett. Another option here would be Allen's longest rush, which is listed at 16.5 yards. The only thing I don't like about this matchup for Allen is that the Bills are double-digit favorites, and they could conceivably jump out to a big lead and then just start running (via the RB's) with Allen taking a back seat at that point. I do however think that Allen can pile on some yardage with moderate-to-good volume, and his rushing attempts prop is listed at 9.5 in this game (with Allen averaging 6.1 yards per rushing attempt this year).


Ja'Marr Chase over 6.5 receptions, +102 (FanDuel)

Chase has been extremely consistent in the receptions department, recording seven or more catches in each of the last eight games that he's played in. He also has double-digit targets in seven of those eight most recent games. That of course includes last week's game vs. Baltimore, where Chase went 8-86-1 vs. the Ravens on 13 targets. Strong chance that Chase get to seven catches once again.

Tyler Boyd over 33.5 receiving yards, -115 (DraftKings)

Boyd is probably a little bit undervalued with most of the attention on the Chase/Higgins combo. Note that Boyd has covered this total in 10-of-16 games this year, including a 5-51 line (on seven targets) vs. the Ravens last week. Good value on the overlooked third option of the Bengals high-powered passing attack.


Christian McCaffrey Over 16.5 Rushing Attempts (-105 DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1.5 units

McCaffrey had 26 rushing attempts in their last matchup on December 15th in which the 49ers won 21-13. They had Jeffrey Wilson run 18 times and Tyrion Davis-Price 14 times in the first game (27-7).

The 49ers outrushed the Seahawks in attempts 89-28 combined in both games. This screams game script as they can just run the ball and control the game with their defense at home.


Kenneth Walker Under 16.5 Rushing Attempts (-125 DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 unit

If you buy into the results from the first two games, this is an easy play. Walker had 12 rushing attempts in the December 15th game and only four in the first game. The reason this number is a tad high is over the last three games, Walker has 29, 23, and 26 rushing attempts. But Walker's rushing attempts were always high when the Seahawks won, vs. when they lost (4,3,8,10,14,12,26).

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