Core Stack #1 – Baker Mayfield + Odell Beckham + Kareem Hunt
Projected Ownership (DK) – 11% / 16% / 8% Projected Ownership (FD) – 10% / 21% / 5% Projected Ownership (YAHOO) – 9% / 25% / 6% Projected Ownership (FDRAFT) – 10% / 16% / 9%
It has been a disappointing 2019 campaign for the Cleveland Browns, and their momentum has been stalled once again. Despite two wins in a row, the focus is almost completely on the bone-headed actions of Myles Garrett at the moment. There is no denying that is has been tumultuous for a team that had Super Bowl hopes at the beginning of the season.
The Browns could go one of two ways moving forward, and their season could conceivably crash from here. However, that’s unlikely to happen this week in a matchup against a poor Dolphins team that has almost no talent left on the defensive side of the ball. This should be a spot where we could see the Browns put up one of their best offensive performances of the year. Odell Beckham is not having the season that people expected, as he has just two 100+ yard games on the season. Expect a third this weekend. Mayfield has been force-feeding targets to Beckham (22 over the last two weeks), but those came in difficult matchups against the Bills and Steelers.
If you want to really load up on the Cleveland passing game, don’t sleep on Kareem Hunt. We are projecting him for single digit ownership on every site, and Hunt has 17 targets in two games since his return from suspension. This is a great way to load up your stack and differentiate your lineup. I expect the Cleveland passing offense to get on track in a big way, and Mayfield is a fine QB option in any format along with these pass catchers.
Core Stack #2 – Derrick Henry + D.J. Chark
Projected Ownership (DK) – 16% / 6% Projected Ownership (FD) – 15% / 6% Projected Ownership (YAHOO) – 9% / 5% Projected Ownership (FDRAFT) – 19% / 5%
The Titans have shown a solid commitment to the running game this year, and it has paid off nicely. Derrick Henry is quietly having a very solid season. Through ten games, he is averaging 83 yards per game with a 4.4 yards per carry average and eight rushing touchdowns. He has a clear hold on the lead back status for this team and seemingly has a safe fantasy floor on a weekly basis. On paper, this is another good matchup, too, as Jacksonville ranks 30th in the league in rush defense DVOA per Football Outsiders. They also allow the third highest rush success rate, the fifth highest explosive rush percentage, and the most rush yards before contact in the league. On the negative side, Henry did rush for just 44 yards on 17 carries in the first meeting between these teams, but that was all the way back in Week 3. The Titans are a home favorite coming out of a bye, and I expect Henry to play well in this game. He’s one of my favorite mid-range running back options on the slate.
If you want to get some correlation in this game, you can hope for the Titans to get out to a lead via the use of Henry, and that will force Jacksonville to the air. Assuming that holds, I’ll opt for D.J. Chark as my favorite play on that side of the ball. Chark showed nice rapport with Foles last week on his way to an 8/104/2 line, and he also led the team in receiving in the first head-to-head meeting against the Titans. He’s got my vote for GPP upside, as we see that he offers plenty of big play ability. If you wanted to get totally wild, you could also play Foles at QB as part of a full stack, but that’s definitely not a requirement. This game does have a fairly low Vegas total.
Core Stack #3 – Tampa Bay/Atlanta Passing Game Stacks
Projected ownership is discussed in the text
Tampa Bay ranks 5th in the league in pass play percentage.
Atlanta ranks 3rd in the league in pass play percentage.
Both teams have defenses that have been solid at stopping the run this year.
Both teams have defenses that have been bad at stopping the pass this year.
Both teams have poor rush offenses.
When you combine all these factors, we have all the makings of a passing game shootout. This is particularly true since both teams have defensive weaknesses in the secondary, and both of these teams have two elite wide receivers — Evans and Godwin on the TB side, and Jones and Ridley on the ATL side.
Yes, I know the Atlanta defense has been much improved over the last few weeks. I’m still not ready to call this a long-term trend. Expect their production to regress a bit moving forward. You aren’t fooling anyone by loading up on ownership in this game, but the right stack of these passing games might be almost a prerequisite to win GPP contests on a week that doesn’t offer a ton of great stacking opportunities. Winston, Ryan, Evans, Godwin, Jones, and Ridley are all in play, and I might play 3-4 of these players on any given lineup. You could perhaps even look to Cameron Brate or Russell Gage for a value player in this game, as well.
Core Stack #4 – Derek Carr + Tyrell Williams
Projected Ownership (DK) – 3% / 6% Projected Ownership (FD) – 3% / 9% Projected Ownership (YAHOO) – 2% / 6% Projected Ownership (FDRAFT) – 2% / 5%
The masses are likely going to look to the safe options from the Raiders this week. Josh Jacobs has been heavily involved in the offense, particularly in games where the Raiders are able to grab a leader. Darren Waller has been one of the best tight ends in football all season long. Those two players are largely safe options on a weekly basis, and I am not telling you that you have to fade them. However, the Jets are a funnel defense that has been very good against the run and very poor against the pass in 2019.
This presents an opportunity to grab low ownership on an upside stack of Carr and Williams. We have both players pegged at extremely low ownership on every site, and Williams is the type of receiver that can exploit a matchup against an underwhelming secondary that lacks elite speed and play-making ability. It’s certainly not a play you need to lock in cash games, but my bold call this week is that Williams goes for 150 yards and scores a couple of long touchdowns.
Core Stack #5 – Alvin Kamara + Saints D/ST
Projected Ownership (DK) – 22% / 15% Projected Ownership (FD) – 28% / 11% Projected Ownership (YAHOO) – 29% / 16% Projected Ownership (FDRAFT) – 28% / 16%
This will certainly be a chalky build, but it’s hard to ignore the Saints as double digit home favorites against a Panthers team that is sliding at this stage of the season. Alvin Kamara ranks second among all NFL running backs in targets — despite missing two weeks due to injury — and he has seen 20 targets in two games since his return from injury. This is also a golden matchup against a team that has been gashed by good running backs all year long. I’m not concerned about the matchup simply because the Panthers were able to slow down Brian Hill in Week 11.
If you want to get some correlation here, pair Kamara with the New Orleans defense. Kyle Allen has been abysmal over the last few games and was horrible against the Falcons a week ago, and he appears over-matched at this point. Don’t expect miracles against a good defense, especially since Carolina is such a large underdog in this game.
The Kamara/NO Defense build is the chalky way to go. However, if you are looking to be ultra contrarian, you could go with Latavius Murray instead. He might be utilized in more of a clock-killing mode should the Saints get out to a big lead. There will be almost no ownership there, and it’s something to consider as a leverage play in mass multi entry formats.
Core Stack #6 – Seahawks/Eagles Game Stacks
Projected ownership is discussed in the text
There aren’t a lot of game stacks that are super appealing this week, but this would be my second choice after the TB/ATL game. Both the Seahawks and Eagles are capable of scoring points, and this year’s Seattle defense isn’t quite as solid as we have seen in prior years. In fact, Carson Wentz is actually trending toward being a fairly popular option this week despite the fact that he has underwhelmed all season. The benefit of using Wentz is in the fact that you can pair him up with a tight end. Both Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert are top options in this Philadelphia offense, and they are essentially tight ends acting as wide receivers. Ertz is the spendy option, but Goedert is a nice salary saving option if you don’t want to spend top dollar at the position. You could also look to a value running back target like Miles Sanders, though usage is always a problem when it comes to Philadelphia running backs.
The Seattle side of this game is appealing simply because we know that the production will be concentrated among Russell Wilson, Chris Carson, and the top wide receivers. Philadelphia is thin in the secondary, and nobody is talking about Tyler Lockett because of his mid-week injury concern. It sounds like he will be a full go in this game, which makes Lockett an upside target in GPPformats. Carson doesn’t have the easiest matchup against a tough front seven, but his volume gives him a nice floor every week.
This game doesn’t stand out as a “must roster” on the surface, but nobody would be surprised if we ended up with a 31-28 game. Don’t be afraid to stack up the game, and the overall options will certainly carry lower ownership than the TB/ATL tilt.
Good luck this week!