SMF: Rams @ Jaguars Pick5 London Edition

Matthew Stafford — Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns

Line: −135 to −145  Projection: 2.1 TD median

Stafford is back to pre-injury sharpness — top 6 in adjusted EPA per dropback and red-zone pass rate.

The Jaguars rank 26th in opponent red-zone passing TD rate (64%), and their man coverage tendencies open seams for Kupp-style crossers and Adams’ boundary fades.

• Red-Zone Pass Rate: 61% (3rd highest NFL)

• Pressure to TD Rate: 2.8 — career best this year

• Clean Pocket Completion %: 75.2

Sharp Angle: Rams lean pass in close games. Two passing scores is Stafford’s median outcome, not ceiling.

Kyren Williams — Over 2.5 Receptions

Projection: 4 catches / 31 yards  Target Share: 12 % in neutral scripts

Jacksonville blitzes at the league’s 7th-highest rate and allows 6.7 RB targets per game — a recipe for Kyren to work as Stafford’s safety valve.

• Catch Rate: 92 %

• Routes Run Per Game: 25 (2nd among RBs)

• Yards Per Route Run: 1.48

Sharp Angle: This is a usage floor play. Kyren’s average vs pressure teams sits at 3.8 receptions. Books keep pricing him like a 2-target back.

Tutu Atwell — Over 34.5 Receiving Yards

Projection: 4 recs / 47 yards  aDOT: 12.1 yards

With defenses shading toward Adams and Puka, Atwell becomes Stafford’s coverage-dictated release valve.

Jacksonville’s slot defenders have allowed the 4th-highest yards per target (9.2) to secondary receivers.

Sharp Angle: Atwell’s snap share remains above 70 %, and his role as the deep motion man makes 35 yards a one-play line.

Davante Adams — Over 80.5 Receiving Yards

Projection: 8 targets / 94 yards  Target Share: 31 %

Since arriving in Jacksonville, Adams has averaged 2.6 yards per route run, nearly identical to his peak Raiders usage.

The Rams play a lot of quarters coverage, which he dismantles — 3.3 YPRR vs quarters in 2025.

• Games ≥ 81 Yards: 3 of 4

• Explosive Catch Rate: 27 %

• Red-Zone Targets: Top 10 league-wide

Sharp Angle: Books are lagging on Adams’ integration. He’s Trevor Lawrence’s first read on 63 % of dropbacks against single coverage.

Brian Thomas Jr — Over 64.5 Receiving Yards

Projection: 5 recs / 78 yards  aDOT: 14.8 yards

Thomas has become the vertical yin to Adams’ possession yang.

The Rams’ defense ranks 30th in explosive pass rate allowed (16%) and gives up 8.9 yards per target to boundary WRs.

Sharp Angle: Lawrence takes 3–4 deep shots per game; Thomas has been the target on half of them. This line is 10 yards light based on his role.