SNF: LIONS @ CHIEFS PICK5

Patrick Mahomes — 2 + Passing Touchdowns

Line: Over 1.5 TDs (−135 to −145)

Projection: 2.3 TD median

Mahomes hasn’t fallen below two passing TDs in any game where Travis Kelce was active this year.

Detroit’s defense plays heavy Cover 2 shells — great for limiting explosives, terrible for defending red-zone spacing concepts.

• Red-Zone Pass Rate: 61 % (2nd-highest NFL).

• Opp Pass TD Rate Allowed: 5.8 % (24th).

• EPA/Play vs Zone: +0.34, best among active QBs.

Sharp Angle: Rice’s suspension doesn’t cap Mahomes — it simplifies the reads. Expect two TDs minimum through Kelce seams and Worthy drags.

Xavier Worthy — Over 63.5 Receiving Yards (Ladder Spot)

Projection: 6 REC / 85 YDS median

Worthy’s target share has jumped from 22 % → 31 % in three weeks as he evolves into KC’s WR1.

Detroit’s corners are aggressive in press, but Worthy’s release package and jet-motion usage punish single-high rotations.

• Yards per Route Run vs Cover 1: 3.5 (top 10 NFL)

• Explosive Target Rate: 29 % (league-high among rookies)

• Avg Depth of Target: 10.9 yards

Ladder Plays:

• 63.5 (−115) → Main

• 75 (+160)

• 100 (+360)

 Sharp Angle: Market still prices Worthy as a gadget rookie. His median now sits mid-80s.

Tyquan Thornton — Over 28.5 Receiving Yards

Role: Field-stretcher WR3 (61 % routes)

aDOT: 14.6 yards

When Detroit’s safeties cheat toward Kelce, Mahomes loves the backside go.

Thornton has quietly produced 1.9 yards per route run vs zone, higher than any non-Kelce receiver.

Sharp Angle: One deep connection hits this number.

Perfect “correlated add-on” to a Mahomes 2 + TD stack.

Amon-Ra St Brown — Over 74.5 Receiving Yards (Ladder Spot)

Projection: 7 REC / 96 YDS median

Detroit’s engine runs through the Sun God. He owns a 32 % target share and ranks 3rd in the league in yards per route run vs zone (2.8) — the exact coverage KC plays 65 % of the time.

• Games ≥ 75 Yards: 10 of last 13

• Team Pass Play Rate: 61 % in neutral scripts

• YAC Per Reception: 5.4 — elite against soft zones

Ladder Plays: 74.5 (−120) | 90 (+140) | 100 (+240)

Sharp Angle: St Brown’s pre-snap motion breaks KC’s disguised shells. His target floor is eight.

David Montgomery — Over 40.5 Rushing Yards

Projection: 14 Carries / 63 Yards median

Detroit’s offensive line is finally healthy, ranking 5th in adjusted line yards (4.82).

Montgomery still owns the interior role — 65 % of short-yardage carries and every 2-minute drain drive.

• Opponent Rush Yards Allowed/Attempt: 4.7 (26th)

• Montgomery Success Rate: 56 % (positive EPA runs)

• Games ≥ 41 Yards Since 2023: 14 of 17

Sharp Angle: Books overreacted to Gibbs’ flash plays. 40.5 is beneath Montgomery’s floor when favored.