SNF Pick5 : Falcons @ 49ers

Falcon Offense Targets

Drake London — Over 71.5 Receiving Yards

Why it makes sense:

London has been on a tear recently; in his last two games he logged ~158 receiving yards each.
San Francisco’s pass defense has taken hits: missing key players like Fred Warner and others.
Atlanta’s target distribution has London heavily involved (snaps & route share both high).
Match-up note: London should draw favorable coverage and volume against a 49ers secondary under pressure.

Takeaway: 71.5 is right at his floor if volume holds — upside is multiple catches ≥ 15 yards deep.

Extra: If confidence is high, pushing ladder toward 85+ yards is justified given his recent form.

Michael Penix Jr. — Over 221.5 Passing Yards

Why it works:

Penix has thrown for large yardage in his recent starts; analytics show his upward trajectory.
49ers’ defense is struggling to generate consistent pressure + coverage breakdowns this season.
Falcons are expected to rely on the pass to keep tempo and exploit matchups — especially on Sunday Night where passing games often inflate slightly.

Takeaway: The 221.5 barrier is modest for a passing-heavy game script. Good floor and ceiling.

Correlation: London’s yardage prop ties into Penix having to throw to keep pace.

Kyle Pitts — Over 3.5 Receptions

Why it’s smart:

Route participation for Pitts is very strong (≈87% last recorded) and target share meaningful.
With defenses focusing on London and Robinson, Pitts could operate as the check-down / intermediate safety valve.
San Francisco’s underneath coverage has shown holes — Pitts is ideally positioned to exploit them.

Takeaway: Over 3.5 receptions is very reachable — three catches is his floor here, four or more is quite probable.

Usage: Good prop as a secondary target lean, not just a flier.

49ers Offense / Role-Players

Jauan Jennings — Over 35.5 Receiving Yards

Why it’s intriguing:

Jennings is dealing with injuries (five broken ribs, ankle/shoulder issues) but remains involved.
With some receiving weapons injured or limited, Jennings’ role arguably rises.
His yards per target / yards per route metrics remain respectable when healthy.
35.5 yards is a low barrier given his opportunity and matchup context.

Takeaway: This is a volume-based role play. If he gets 4–5 targets, he likely clears 35.5 yards.

Caveat: Injuries are real — monitor his practice status but assume active for now.

Kyle Juszczyk — Over 0.5 Receptions

Why this caught my eye:

Fullback Juszczyk may not be a heavy receiver, but he’s seen targets/leak-outs consistently.
The 49ers love using him in motion and on short passes — especially when facing pressure or blitz sets, which the Falcons deploy at a high rate.
Over 0.5 receptions = simply catch at least one pass — much easier than many props.

Takeaway: This is a low-risk high-value prop. One small check-down catch triggers it; upside is small but safe.

Portfolio fit: Good “floor” play to anchor a prop card while the others chase yardage.