SNF Pick5: Lions @ Eagles

Jalen Hurts — Over 207.5 Passing Yards

Projection: 23 completions | 231 yards median

EPA vs Zone: +0.18 per dropback (top 5 among QBs)

• Coverage Matchup: Detroit plays Cover 3 and quarters (68%), shells that force Hurts to work intermediate windows — his most efficient area.

• Offensive Trend: The Eagles have shifted heavier toward early-down passing to neutralize blitzes.

• Game Script: Lions offense will score — forcing Hurts into 30+ attempts.

Sharp Angle: Detroit limits explosives but allows sustained drives, which increases Hurts’ yardage floor.

207.5 is simply too low for a game expected to trade scores.

A.J. Brown — Over 60.5 Receiving Yards

Projection: 6 receptions | 83 yards median

Yards per Target vs Single-High: 11.2 (elite tier)

• Why It Works: Detroit plays single-high at one of the highest rates in the league — Brown destroys these looks.

• Volume: Brown owns a 30% first-read share vs Cover 3.

• Trend: He’s hit 60+ yards in 7 of his last 9 games when Hurts attempts 25+ passes.

Sharp Angle: Brown’s role is “coverage-proof,” but especially deadly vs Detroit’s rotations.

This is a buy-low line in a matchup where he traditionally dominates.

Dallas Goedert — Over 4.5 Receptions

Projection: 5–7 receptions | 56 yards median

Route Participation: 88%

• Why It Works: Lions ILBs allow 7.4 catches per game to tight ends — bottom 5 in the NFL.

• Coverage Fit: Goedert thrives vs zone when sitting between hook defenders.

• Game Flow: Play-action and RPOs create natural TE leverage without forcing targets.

Sharp Angle: Detroit’s defense funnels targets inside.

With A.J. Brown demanding safety help, Goedert becomes the volume answer.

Amon-Ra St. Brown — Over 77.5 Receiving Yards

Projection: 8 receptions | 92 yards median

Target Share: 31% (elite α usage)

• Why It Works: Amon-Ra is the most consistent zone-beater in the NFC.

• Philly Coverage: Eagles play soft two-high shells on early downs, leaving slot voids open.

• Matchup Trend: Opposing WR1s are averaging 84 yards per game vs Philadelphia due to LB/slot softness.

✓ Sharp Angle: This is a pure volume/role bet.

With Detroit leaning pass-heavy in competitive games, ARSB should see double-digit targets.

Jahmyr Gibbs — Over 21.5 Receiving Yards

Projection: 3–4 receptions | 29 yards median

Routes per Dropback: 64%

• Why It Works: Gibbs is the Lions’ pressure counter.

• Eagles Weakness: Philly allows 42 receiving yards per game to RBs, struggling with angle routes and screens.

• Trend: Gibbs has cleared 20 yards in 5 of his last 6 competitive-game scripts.

✓ Sharp Angle: Gibbs’ receiving role expands when Detroit is trailing or when pressure rises — both likely here.