MLB Player Prop: Christian Yelich over 1.5 Total Bases, +125
Yelich is 2-for-2 with a double and a homer vs. Reds rookie Hunter Greene, but there's more to this story. Greene has given up an incredible amount of home runs this year, allowing a homer almost every other inning (10 HR in 20.2 innings). He has allowed 28 hits this year, meaning over a third of his hits allowed have been homers. With Yelich in good form currently, batting high in the order and guaranteed the 9th inning as the road team, this is a nice spot. Also, be aware that Willy Adames (1-for-1 with a homer) and Rowdy Tellez (2-for-2 with two doubles) have good numbers vs. Greene as well.
MLB Player Prop: Kyle Wright over 17.5 Outs Recorded, -140
Braves pitcher Kyle Wright has been one of the more notable breakouts this year, logging 6+ innings in four of his five starts, allowing less than a baserunner per inning while striking out 37 batters in 31 innings. He's also pitching to a 0.47 ERA and 0.79 WHIP at home this year (19 innings). Meanwhile, Boston hasn't been hitting well, and is only 6-16 vs. RHP this year. There seems a pretty solid chance that Wright can complete 6 innings once again.
Houston Astros at Minnesota Twins
Verlander took the requisite time off following his Tommy John surgery and has returned as though he never left, establishing himself as one of the favorites for the AL Cy Young award. In addition to his fine work on the mound this year, it's also notable that Twins batters Byron Buxton(2-for-12), Jorge Polanco (2-for-11), Max Kepler (1-for-18), and Gary Sanchez (1-for-12) have all fared poorly vs. Verlander. In addition, the one batter who has had success vs. Verlander (Carlos Correa, 5-for-10) is out of the lineup right now. While Twins starter Joe Ryan has looked very sharp himself this year, he's no Verlander, and the Astros should clearly have the edge on offense here. Houston is also streaking right now, winning seven games in a row.
MLB Best Bet: Astros Money Line (-145)
MLB Player Prop: Robbie Ray under 6.5 strikeouts, +115
The reigning Cy Young winner has just looked a bit off this year, and his average fastball velocity is down a full 2.0 miles per hour from 2021. While he's never been the most consistent guy around, that has always been due to his control. The one constant throughout his career is that he's always averaged well above a strikeout per inning (248 strikeouts over 193.1 innings last year, just as an example), but somehow he has only recorded 31 strikeouts over 37 innings this season. In fact, he has only eclipsed 5 strikeouts on one of his six starts thus far. At plus-money that he won't get to 7 strikeouts, that seems a pretty good deal, things being what they are at the moment.
MLB Player Prop: Jesus Luzardo over 5.5 strikeouts, -110
The talented Luzardo is fully stretched out now, having logged 6.0 innings in each of his last two starts while throwing a season-high 98 pitches last time out. He has struck out 28 batters in just 20.1 innings this year, and his chances of getting to six strikeouts (with even just 5 innings) are pretty good considering that the Diamondbacks rank Top 5 in team strikeouts. I would be surprised if he doesn't get there tonight.
Los Angeles Dodgers at Pittsburgh Pirates - 6:35 pm EDT
I am going to bet the Dodgers -1.5 run line in these spots every single time. I also love getting the 8.5 run total which is great as I love the Pirates under. I would shop around for a 3 on this one. I am seeing a lot of -2.5 run lines on the Dodgers, shop hard for a -1.5 run line.
MLB Expert Pick #1 for Dodgers-Pirates – Dodgers -1.5 for 1 RW buck (PointsBet -135)
MLB Expert Pick #2 for Dodgers-Pirates – Pirates under 3 runs for 1 RW buck (PointsBet +100)
Milwaukee Brewers at Cincinnati Reds 6:40 pm EDT
Once again the Reds are on the slate, so it's a must-play especially when there is a huge disparity in starting pitching matchups. The Brewers have been much better at home vs. road especially on offense with almost a 2-run differential in scoring. They recently destroyed the Reds in a three-game home series sweeping them and outscoring them 34-12. The Reds have started to score some runs as they have 40 runs in their last 6 games. I still think this is a spot where they get to Greene early and often and cover the run line. In his last start against the Brewers, he lasted only 2.2 innings and gave up 8 earned runs.
MLB Expert Pick for Brewers-Reds – Brewers -1.5 for 1.15 RW buck (FanDuel -115)
Boston Red Sox at Atlanta Braves 7:20 pm EDT
The Red Sox offense is one of the worst in baseball and Wright has been lights out this year. I expect Whitlock to put up a great performance as well. The Braves' offense has been middle of the pack so far.
Boston is averaging 3.3 runs per game so the 3.5 team total seems at least a ½ to 1 full run too high. They have just 6 home runs in the last 18 games which is unthinkable when you look at the names in their lineup.
MLB Expert Pick #1 for Red Sox-Braves – Under 7.5 runs F5 for 1.08 RW buck (FanDuel -108)
MLB Expert Pick #2 for Red Sox-Braves – Red Sox under 3.5 runs for 1.18 RW buck (FanDuel -118)
Colorado Rockies vs. San Francisco Giants 9:40 pm EDT
The Rockies are once again showing a huge difference in runs scored at home vs. on the road and the Giants have one of the worst hitting parks in baseball. The Rockies average just around 3 runs per game on the road so having them go under 3 tonight in a great pitchers' park is appealing to me.
MLB Expert Pick for Rockies-Giants– Rockies under 3 runs for 1.28 RW buck (FanDuel -128)
Miami Marlins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks 9:40 pm EDT
After seeing the D-backs' first 11 games, you would have though they were on the path of one of the worst teams in baseball. But they are 13-6 in their last 19 with a +15 run differential and its from the strong starting pitching. Much like when the Red Sox were home dogs last week and a strong play, I love the D-backs in this spot. The Marlins are 1-8 in their last nine and don't deserve to be road favorites against anyone except the Reds.
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