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Sportsbook: Week 12 Best Bets


Indianapolis Colts +3.5 (-110) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Buccaneers have clearly played worse on the road this year, where they have encountered all 3 of their losses (compared to only 2 wins, where they failed to cover the spread both times). Meanwhile, the Colts have been surging via the unstoppable Jonathan Taylor, winning five of their last six games, with four of those wins coming by double digits (including a blowout win over the Bills in Buffalo last week). It's not often you can ride the wave while also getting +3.5 points at home, and we're even getting an apex number, with most other outlets at +3.

Philadelphia Eagles -3.5 (-115) at New York Giants

I have to admit that I've been underrating the Eagles these past few weeks, as they've clearly been able to impose their will with their newfound rushing attack, even against solid run defenses. The Eagles have averaged an incredible 43 rushing attempts over their last 4 games (going 3-1 over that span, with all three wins coming by double digits), and now face a New York run defense that ranks 29th in fantasy points allowed to running backs. This sets up very nicely for the Eagles, who rank a close second in rushing attempts, rushing yards, yards per carry, and are tied for the most rushing touchdowns with 17 on the year.

Green Bay Packers +1.5 (-110) vs. Los Angeles Rams

The Packers are 4-0 at home this year, with all four wins coming by double digits. They now face a struggling Rams team that has been blown out by inferior teams in their last two games, with QB Matt Stafford throwing 4 interceptions during that span. The Packers have been good at putting pressure on the QB, which could lead to further turnovers here (the Packers defense ranks 9th in interceptions, 10th in sacks). Meanwhile, the Packers' passing offense is clearly on an uptick (even with Rodgers' painful toe injury), as they recently returned all their starters, and Rodgers is coming off easily his best game of the year. I like the Packers to remain unbeaten at home this week.

Player Props

Jonathan Taylor over 80.5 rushing yards (-125)

As mentioned last week, if you credit Taylor with the 50+ rushing yards that were called back on penalties in the Titans game, he has now gone over 100 rushing yards in 6 straight games (and 7 of his last 8). Even versus one of the better run defenses in the league last week, he was able to put up enormous numbers. He faces another strong run defense here, but note that Taylor received over 30 carries last week, as the Colts have clearly gone all-in on making him the focal point of the offense. The Buccaneers also may be missing one of their top defensive linemen in Vita Vea. Something to keep in mind regarding Jonathan Taylor, he's so explosive that with one step on the defense (or one crease), he can cover half the total in an instant. For that reason, I generally prefer his combo prop (rushing + receiving yards). You really want access to all his touches, since any one play can result in a 50-yarder.

Miles Sanders over 56.5 rushing yards (-125)

As mentioned in the game write-up, the Eagles are simply overwhelming their foes with rushing attempts these days, to great success. That bodes well for Sanders, the Eagles starting running back who returned last week (after missing 3 games) with 94 rushing yards, and now moves back into a clear majority share of the backfield touches, as Jordan Howard will miss this game. It should be a nice Sanders week.

Brandon Aiyuk over 54.5 receiving yards (-125)

There's currently an idiosyncrasy with the 49ers passing attack, that being #1 receiver Deebo Samuel's increasing backfield usage (where he's obviously been quite effective). That has opened up additional receiving opportunities for Aiyuk, who by far led the 49ers passing attack last week with a 7-85-1 line, while Deebo caught only one pass (going 8-79-1 on the ground instead). While starting RB Elijah Mitchell may or may not return this week, Deebo figures to retain (and perhaps even continue to increase) his backfield role. Meanwhile, the Vikings rank 30th in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers. Good time to have some Aiyuk exposure, probably.

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