Buffalo Bills (-11.5) (-115) vs Carolina Panthers
Before I get into the game, I urge you all to be very patient and diligent with your action this week. The Omicron variant is causing chaos throughout the NFL with things changing by the hour. I'll do the best that I can with what we know right now, but make sure you know the full story before placing any wagers.
Hey look, I'm fading the woeful Panthers again this week. And why not? I've said before, this Buffalo team is a bunch of bullies that pick on the weak, and right now, there aren't many weaker than Carolina. Their QB situation is among the worst in the NFL, their star is always hurt, which all equals an offense that struggles to score points and a very tired defense. Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs should have a field day, as should the Buffalo Defense.
Pittsburgh Steelers (-1) (-110) vs. Tennessee Titans
I believe that when you find something that works, particularly in the unpredictable world of the NFL, you stick with it when it makes sense. Like last week when the Titans and Jags provided an ugly and easy under, I'll once again be picking on the woeful Tennessee offense. Ryan Tannehillcontinues to show he has little left in the tank and while Julio Jones did come back last week, he's clearly not the Julio Jones from 2018. The Titans picked off Trevor Lawrence four times last week and still couldn't put the Jags to bed. This week, a rested and grumpy Steelers team will pose a much bigger challenge. After an embarrassing first-half performance in Minnesota, Big Ben and Steelers' offense woke up with an up-tempo scheme in the second half, falling just short at the gun (well done, Chase Claypool). The Titans opened as a 2-point favorite and bettors figured out quickly the wrong team was favored. With little COVID news surrounding this game, I think you can jump on the Steelers and the short line with confidence.
Cincinnati Bengals (+3) (-110) at Denver Broncos
It seems the public has lost faith in this Bengals squad (can you blame them?) but I have not. I still believe they are the most talented team in the AFC North and have the tools to win, they just need to find consistency. I don't understand the love for Denver in this game. To me, Teddy Bridgewateris clearly less than 100%, and now both Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon III are dinged up. The Denver D is susceptible to the pass, so Joe Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase should feast, and with Tee Higgins trending in the right direction, the aerial assault should be in full force. And I've yet to mention Joe Mixon, who is running extremely well. With the line now a full FG, I feel as though Cincy is a strong play as the more talented underdog.
New Orleans Saints +11.5 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers - The Bucs narrowly defeated the Bills and could be in for a letdown game, even at home. I'd expect the Saints defense to show up and no one has completely shut down Taysom Hill as a runner since he became the starter. The Saints have already beaten Tampa this season and this spread seems too big for a divisional game.
James Robinson OVER 82.5 Rushing Yards - The consensus is that Jaguars will show up this week now that Urban Meyer has been dismissed and it seems like that's a strong possibility. This is a good home matchup against a Texans' team that ranks last against the rush. Carlos Hydehas already been ruled out, leaving Robinson as many touches as he can handle. The Jaguars could hold a rare lead in the second half and use Robinson to run down the clock.
Dalton Schultz OVER 37.5 Receiving Yards - Shultz is coming off a dismal 1-4 line in the receiving categories but should be able to bounce back against the Giants. Shultz his this over in his previous three games before last week and the Giants are league average at defending the position. Blake Jarwin remains on IR and the receivers on the outside should open up the middle for Schultz.
Davis Mills OVER 0.5 Interceptions (-155) - Mills had an incredible game last week and has to have a boost in confidence after being named the starter for the rest of the season. All of that being said, he's on the road this week and there will be some bumps in the road the rest of the season. The Jaguars have had trouble with the interceptions but this pick is about fading Mills
Jeff Wilson (-125) - Elijah Mitchell will miss another game, giving Wilson the perfect opportunity to score his first touchdown of the season. The 49ers are big favorites at home against the Falcons who are 23rd against the run this season. I also like adding a smaller wager on Wilson +450 to score two or more touchdowns.
Ezekiel Elliott (-145) - Tony Pollard will likely be a game-time call but even if he's out there he likely will play fewer snaps and get fewer touches. Elliott has had 13 touches in every game this season and the Vegas line suggests the Cowboys should have any trouble scoring. I normally don't like laying these odds but Zeke does have nine scores on the season.
Rondale Moore (+175) - No DeAndre Hopkins this week means there should be more work for Moore than his usual snaps. Out of the three top Cardinals' wide receivers, Moore has the best odds with A.J. Green (+160) and Christian Kirk (+130). If you don't agree with my Lions +12 call, I can see taking all three and hoping two of them score and it's not a tough loss if only one of them does.