We had a pretty solid week, Week 15 hitting all three ATS games (and recommending to "sprinkle something on the Lions' money line"), 2/3 player props and 2/3 touchdown props. Let's see if we can keep that momentum this week.
Carolina Panthers (+9.5) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - There are a few missing pieces to the Tampa offense including Chris Godwin, Mike Evans and Leonard Fournette. That will be a problem, especially on the road. Look for Carolina's defense to be ready for the short-handed Bucs and easily cover this spread.
Pittsburgh Steelers (+8.5) vs. Kansas City Chiefs - The Chiefs seem to have hit their stride as of late, although I'd be worried if I was a fan that it's too soon. The defense has been playing much better but they've also had an outbreak of COVID-19 making key players be in question this weekend. I'd think Travis Kelce will be back but the loss of Harrison Butker could mean something. Look for Najee Harris to have a big game and the Steelers to at least keep this one close.
Courtland Sutton OVER 28.5 Receiving Yards - This one seems to be too good to be true. Sutton got seven targets last week so he would need like five yards per attempt to hit this mark. This could easily be a sneaky, high-scoring game and seven targets last week portends for a nice game from Sutton.
Carson Wentz OVER 210.5 Passing Yards - Recency bias has dragged this line down despite the fact that Wentz has hit this over in eight of his 14 games this season. He hasn't hit the over in the last two games but be aware the Cardinals will stack the line and make Wentz and his arm beat them over Jonathan Taylor.
Najee Harris OVER 67.5 Rushing Yards - Harris had a dismal outing last week against the Titans but I'm totally confident he'll right the ship this week against the Chiefs defense. Mike Tomlin is still one of the better coaches in the NFL and he knows the key to this game is controlling the clock and to do that, run the ball.
Rob Gronkowski +130 - Tom Brady is running out of options to throw to but Gronk has always been a staple in his offense. I like Ronald Jones (-115) in this spot as well but I think Gronk will get a few red-zone targets in this matchup with Carolina.
Miles Sanders +100 - Here's my favorite wager amongst the touchdown scorers of the week. And if he doesn't hit this week, I'll Martindale this until the end of the season. However, the Giants are horrible on defense and are on the road. There's been a lot made of Sanders not scoring this season so as long as he's healthy and out there, he should hit pay dirt.
Nico Collins +210 - Brandin Cooks could be out for this game leaving Collins as the Texans' top wide receiver. I like his OVER for receiving yards whenever it comes out and I think there's something to Davis Mills.