The highest total on the main slate initially dropped 2.5 points on the open after the Drew Brees injury news, but it has since rebounded. We have flipped percentages from what we would normally expect, with 84% of the cash on the over but 56% of the tickets on the under. Our predictive model offers no real lean on the total, with both defenses in the top half of the league in our opponent-adjusted rankings.
The Falcons are getting back more playmakers on the offensive side of the ball, which helped move this spread from a 7.5-point opening down to 4. Ownership should be up for wide receivers in this matchup, as DFS players see a Falcons versus Saints matchup and immediately think, “shootout.” There are some things working against this happening in Week 11, but it still projects to be the highest-owned and most expensive game stack.
Calvin Ridley may return, which changes the target projections for the Falcons' offense. He is at a lower salary than Julio Jones, who didn’t hit the target volume most projected in Ridley’s absence. Locking them both into a lineup is cost-prohibitive, but it ensures fantasy production in the event that Matt Ryan goes off.
If Ryan doesn’t have a performance capable of winning a GPP, then Ridley and Jones won’t come close to paying off their salaries. Our goal is to stack ceiling-breaking performances, and this is the most likely core to do it for the Falcons. Running multiple stacks with one or the other is also a viable option, but that requires more exposure to the top-owned game that may not have as high of a chance to become a shootout. I think either going all in or all out on this matchup is the correct approach in Week 11.
In the game script that sees Ryan break out, it is safe to assume the best option from the Saints will be Alvin Kamara. Most will gravitate toward Michael Thomas, who is a decent option at a reduced salary but doesn’t fit into the assumed game script. There is some quarterback uncertainty with the Saints, as Taysom Hill has taken the majority of first-team reps in practice. This makes it an unplayable situation for DFS, so a one-sided game stack is the only option for the highest-total game.
Matt Ryan (DK $6,300, FD $7,800)
Julio Jones (DK $7,500, FD $8,100)
Calvin Ridley (DK $7,000, FD $7,800)
Alvin Kamara (DK $9,200, FD $9,700)
Remaining Roster Average DK $4,000, FD $5,320
The game-stack options are thin in Week 11, as evidenced by one of the best defenses in the NFL being the second-best target. The total has dropped a full point from the open but is still two points higher than any previous total for the Colts. The Packers have the second-best offense in the NFL, according to our opponent-adjusted grades, and need to have the edge if a shootout starts to form.
Nov 1, 2020; Green Bay, Wisconsin, USA; Green Bay Packers wide receiver Davante Adams (17) celebrates with center Corey Linsley (63) after scoring a touchdown against the Minnesota Vikings during the second quarter at Lambeau Field. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports
Our model leans slightly toward the over but doesn’t offer enough value to make it a worthwhile bet. It is still the highest total that has a clear lean toward the over from our model, which makes it a worthy target for DFS considerations.
Aaron Rodgers (DK $7,000, FD $9,000)
Davante Adams (DK $8,600, FD $9,500)
Michael Pittman Jr. (DK $4,500, FD $5,500)
Remaining Roster Average DK $4,983, FD $6,000
Marquez Valdes-Scantling has become noteworthy over the past two games, but this is still an offense based on Davante Adams, who still saw over a 30% target share in Week 10 despite not reaching 100 total air yards for the third time this season. His down games have been weather-related, so the dome confines of Lucas Oil Stadium is appealing from a DFS perspective. Xavier Rhodes is playing at a high level for the Colts, but we still give Adams a 22% edge in their matchup, as Adams has had success against Rhodes in prior outings.
Philip Rivers (DK $5,600, FD $7,000)
Michael Pittman Jr. (DK $4,500, FD $5,500)
Davante Adams (DK $8,600, FD $9,500)
Remaining Roster Average DK $5,217 FD $6,333
Pittman is coming off a two-game stretch in which he has run a route on 89% of dropbacks with a 20% target-per-route rate. He has emerged as the primary downfield threat in this offense, seeing an average depth of target of 11.5 yards and a 36% air-yard share. His salary has increased by $600, but that isn’t a big enough correction based on his recent usage. He should see the majority of his routes against Josh Jackson, who is the Packers' lowest-graded cornerback.
Two under-achieving offenses face off in this AFC showdown, yet both units still rank in the top 10 of our opponent-adjusted grades. Something has to give, with the initial market movement indicating points in this matchup. The total has moved up 2.5 points behind 62% of the cash and 57% of the tickets.
This is also the direction that PFF Greenline leans, which makes this a perfect opportunity to buy low on two offenses with something to prove. Our predictive models also find value on the Titans as road underdogs, which indicates a tighter game script than the betting market currently projects. If this plays out, it could easily be the under-the-radar shootout we need to get to the top of DFS leaderboards.
Here I am trying to make Devin Duvernay a thing when he probably doesn’t warrant it. He is coming off his highest percentage of routes run per dropback — a figure that's been over 50% in his past three games. He is actually closer to the same routes run per dropback as Willie Snead IV over the past two games, which indicates a possible changing of the guard.
Marquise Brown should have had a breakout game by now, so playing him is also an option. Outside of Mark Andrews, every Ravens pass-catcher feels like a dart throw at this point, so why not go with the cheapest option who could be emerging more than people currently realize.
In the game script where the Ravens are forced to play catch-up, we should see as much Derrick Henry as we can handle. He has been a fantasy letdown for the past four weeks, and ownership should be nonexistent for him in this difficult matchup with game script against him. If we are stacking Lamar Jackson, it plays into the idea that this matchup is closer than the betting market currently projects. If that actually happens, Henry should see plenty of opportunities to pay off his reduced salary.
Lamar Jackson (DK $7,300, FD $8,400)
Devin Duvernay (DK $3,000,FD $4,800)
Derrick Henry (DK $8,000, FD $8,200)
Remaining Roster Average DK $5,283 FD $6,433
The total continues to slide in this matchup, which signals the lack of faith from the betting market in Andy Dalton‘s return having a positive impact on the Cowboys' offense. The Vikings continue to climb in our opponent-adjusted offensive grades, boasting the sixth-best offense in the NFL while Kirk Cousinsowns the sixth-best opponent-adjusted passing grade.
Oct 11, 2020; Arlington, Texas, USA; Dallas Cowboys quarterback Andy Dalton (14) throws a pass in the fourth quarter against the New York Giants at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports
Both defenses sit right above and below league average, according to our opponent-adjusted defensive rankings. Our model likes the Cowboys' passing offense, which fits well with the expected game script and one-dimensional Vikings offense once they get a lead.
Dalton offers some appeal as a low-salary option in his return from injury. Michael Gallup is popping up in the wide receiver blowup model after a two-game stretch that saw him run the most routes among Cowboy wide receivers (91%). He was at a 23% target share and a 25% air-yard share during this stretch, which is unmatched usage given his price. The Andy Dalton to Michael Gallup stack is one of the cheapest options available, and it allows you to squeeze in any high-priced player. That makes Dalvin Cook the preferred play in the run-it-back stack, with the game script allowing him to once again handle all of the Vikings' offensive production.
Andy Dalton (DK $5,300, FD $6,900)
Michael Gallup (DK $3,700, FD $5,400)
Dalvin Cook (DK $9,000, FD $10,500)
Remaining Roster Average DK $5,333 FD $6,200
There was a slight bump up to the opening week total behind 53% of the cash leaning on the over. The ticket percentage leans under, with the majority of bettors seeming to overrate the two defenses in this matchup. Both units are in the bottom half of our opponent-adjusted defensive rankings, as the Browns sit 20th in the NFL in coverage grade.
The Eagles are 12th in our opponent-adjusted run-defense grades, but the Browns haven’t been slowed by anyone on run plays this season.
This model is high on the Eagles' passing unit, which fits in well to the game-script narrative from the betting markets. If the Browns build an early lead and ride their rushing duo, we could see plenty of opportunities for Carson Wentz and his now-healthy receiving unit.
In this scenario, both wide receivers are at a low enough price point to justify a double stack with Wentz. No one will be high on Travis Fulgham after his performance last week, which makes him an enticing DFS option. Both pass-catchers have difficult matchups, which will drive ownership elsewhere. In a week with few viable options, the Eagles' game stack is starting to pop in this model. The one concern is the slow pace of the Browns' offense, especially when it holds a lead.
Carson Wentz (DK $5,700, FD $7,400)
Jalen Reagor (DK $4,300, FD $5,600)
Travis Fulgham (DK $5,600, FD $6800)
Nick Chubb (DK $7,000, FD $8,100)