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Thanksgiving Day NFL Picks: Buffalo Bills at Detroit Lions

The Bills' offense put together one of its more well-rounded games of the season against Cleveland despite Allen throwing for a season-low 197 yards. That's because both Devin Singletary and James Cook were involved to a notable degree, racking up 172 rushing yards between them on 29 carries. Head coach Sean McDermott had the luxury of giving his two backs heavy usage with Buffalo enjoying a 22-10 lead going into the fourth quarter, and a similar game script could play out Thursday.

At a minimum, the Bills should have an opportunity to run a similar game plan if they so wish to, considering the Lions have had trouble stopping both the run and pass, especially on the fast track of Ford Field – Detroit is yielding an NFL-high 454.2 total yards per home game. However, it's a good bet Allen will be more aggressive than last week when there seemed to be a measure of confidence from McDermott that the Browns weren't capable of seriously threatening to outpace Buffalo with their offense.

The Lions aren't likely to either, but they've shown some firepower this season on that side of the ball and have somewhat quietly averaged an NFC-high 31.6 points per home game. In fact, the only other team putting up more points on its home field in the entire league is the Bills (34 PPG). The fact Detroit can also trot out its own version of a balanced attack with a three-headed backfield consisting of Jamaal Williams, D'Andre Swift and Justin Jackson. With tackling machine Tremaine Edmunds (groin) already ruled out for Buffalo, the Lions could find some success on the ground.

The home team's ability to keep the pressure on Bill's offense to pile up some points puts me in the direction of taking a shot at plus money on Buffalo's potential range of points. Given the defensive matchup, the Bills certainly have the potential to put up at least 31 points, especially with the Lions already giving up an NFL-high 30.6 per home contest.

Bills at Lions Best Bets:

  • Bills to score 31-40 points (+150 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

  • Same-Game Parlay: Bills Moneyline and Bills Over 32.5 points (-114 on FanDuel Sportsbook)

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