TNF Fontaine’s 5 Pick5: Raiders@Broncos

RJ Harvey — Over 15.5 Receiving Yards

Projection: 3 receptions / 28 yards median

Routes per Dropback: 63 % (steady increase)

Yards per Route Run: 1.48

• Why It Works: Harvey’s hybrid usage has quietly become Sean Payton’s outlet counter to pressure.

• Raiders Tendency: Vegas blitzes at a top-10 rate but ranks 26th in opponent RB receiving yards per game (46.7).

• Film Note: Harvey’s swing screens and angle routes attack linebacker depth where Vegas struggles.

Sharp Angle: Low line + established role = strong floor prop. One screen and a check-down clear it.

Troy Franklin — Over 46.5 Receiving Yards

Projection: 4 recs / 62 yards median / ADOT ≈ 12.3

Target Share: 19 % on deep crossers and sideline outs

• Why It Works: Franklin’s speed challenges a secondary allowing 8.8 yards per target to WR2s.

• Defensive Mismatch: Raiders’ corners sit in off-man, leaving soft windows at 10-15 yards.

• Efficiency: 1.9 YPRR over the past three weeks.

Sharp Angle: Perfect explosive add-on to Harvey’s short yardage floor. One deep cross puts him over.

Geno Smith — Over 215.5 Passing Yards

Projection: 24 completions / 241 yards median / 7.4 YPA

Neutral Pass Rate: 60 % (slightly above league average)

• Game Script: Denver is stingy vs the run (top 8 in rush EPA allowed) — Raiders must lean pass.

• Protection: Vegas’ line has improved to 10th in pass-block win rate; Geno has clean pockets on 58 % of dropbacks.

• Broncos Coverage: Play Cover 3 / Match Zone on ~65 % of snaps — perfect for Geno’s rhythm throws to his tight ends and intermediate routes.

Sharp Angle: 215 yards is a discount for expected volume (30 + attempts). Floor of 220, ceiling 280.

Michael Mayer — Over 22.5 Receiving Yards

Projection: 3 recs / 33 yards median | Route Rate ≈ 75 %

Target Depth: 8 yards (aDOT)

• Why It Works: Broncos linebackers allow the 4th-highest TE completion rate (79 %).

• Usage: Mayer runs high-percentage crossers and outs that fit Geno’s timing.

• Trend: Has cleared this line in 4 of 5 games when targeted ≥ 3 times.

Sharp Angle: This is a possession TE floor play — a perfect correlation with Geno yardage overs.

Brock Bowers — Over 69.5 Receiving Yards

Projection: 7 targets / 6 recs / 82 yards median

Yards after Catch: 6.2 (YAC monster)

Target Share: 26 % since Week 5

• Why It Works: Denver’s safeties are aggressive in run fits, creating vacant seams on play-action.

• Trend: Bowers has topped 70 yards in three straight games with 6 + targets.

• Film: Vegas uses him like a hybrid slot/TE — the Broncos’ nickel can’t match his speed.

Sharp Angle: High-volume alpha in a game where Geno throws 30 + times. This line should be closer to 78.