TNF Fontaine’s 5 Pick5: Ravens @ Dolphins

Derrick Henry — Over 87.5 Rushing Yards

Projection: 20–22 carries | 105 yards median

Yards After Contact: 3.4 (Top 5 among RBs)

Success Rate: 57 % on inside zone runs

• Game Script: Ravens enter as small favorites in a game where they’ll control possession. Mike McDaniel’s defense ranks 29th in run stop win rate.

• Matchup Edge: Miami’s interior front (without Christian Wilkins) has allowed 4.8 YPC since Week 5.

• Trend: When Henry gets 18 + carries in positive script games, he clears 80 yards over 70 % of the time.

Sharp Angle: Baltimore will hammer the run early to neutralize Miami’s pass rush. Henry is the identity play of the game.

Mark Andrews — Over 2.5 Receptions

Projection: 4 recs | 47 yards median | Target Share ≈ 19 %

• Coverage Matchup: Dolphins play Cover 3 and Match Zone ≈ 62 % of snaps. Andrews has thrived against zone, averaging 2.4 YPRR in those looks.

• Game Design: Lamar Jackson will need quick middle field answers against Miami blitz rotations.

• Floor Play: Andrews has hit 3 + receptions in five straight games when targeted ≥ 4 times.

Sharp Angle: Books still price this line like he’s not one of Lamar’s favorite targets.

Keaton Mitchell — Over 13.5 Rushing Yards

Projection: 5–6 carries | 32 yards median | Explosive Run Rate ≈ 19 %

• Role: Mitchell has become the change-of-pace spark for Baltimore. He handles a handful of designed outside zone runs each half.

• Defensive Weakness: Miami’s linebackers over-pursue; cutback lanes have produced 6 runs of 15 + yards in last 3 weeks.

• Efficiency: Mitchell averages 5.8 YPC on limited volume.

Sharp Angle: A low bar for an explosive runner. One crease could cash this line in a single drive.

Malik Washington — Over 3.5 Receptions

Projection: 5 recs | 52 yards | Slot Snap Rate ≈ 70 %

• Why It Works: With Jaylen Waddle drawing bracket coverage, Washington operates as Tua’s hot read against pressure.

• Coverage Fit: Ravens play man ≈ 45 % of the time — Washington is a quick-separation receiver who wins on option routes.

• Trend: Has cleared 4 receptions in three straight games with > 5 targets.

Sharp Angle: Baltimore’s pressure forces Tua into rhythm throws to his slot options — Washington is the schematic answer.

Tua Tagovailoa — Over 217.5 Passing Yards

Projection: 27 completions | 245 yards median | YPA 8.3 vs blitz

• Offensive Script: McDaniel uses motion and RPO looks to slow down Baltimore’s rush. That creates short windows and YAC opportunities.

• Defensive Stats: Ravens allow 6.8 yards per attempt and rank 23rd in explosive pass rate allowed (> 15 yds).

• Efficiency: Tua has topped 218 yards in 8 of his last 10 full starts when attempting 25 + passes.

Sharp Angle: Even in a balanced attack, Miami’s offense flows through precision throws — this number is simply too low for Tua’s tempo.