TNF Pick5: Bills @ Texans

Khalil Shakir — Over 4.5 Receptions

Projection: 6 receptions | 58 yards median

Target Share: 22% since Week 6

Slot Rate: 72%

• Why It Works: Texans play zone coverage at a league-high rate (~72%). Shakir is Josh Allen’s zone-beater — sits in soft spots and wins underneath.

• Efficiency: 75% catch rate vs zone; 1.95 YPRR.

• Game Script: Texans’ pass rush forces quick reads, elevating Shakir’s involvement.

✓ Sharp Angle: SNF-level reliability. This isn’t a ceiling play — this is built on volume and coverage answers.

Josh Allen — Over 32.5 Rushing Yards

Projection: 7–9 carries | 42 yards median

Scramble Rate: 11.3% (season high)

Designed Run Share: 4–6 plays per game

• Why It Works: Houston generates top-10 pressure without blitzing — forcing Allen out of structure.

• Trend: In competitive games (<7-point spread), Allen averages 38.4 rushing yards.

• Film: Bills have leaned on QB power and counter against fast-flow fronts.

✓ Sharp Angle: One prime-time scramble, one designed keeper, and one broken play — that’s the over.

Dalton Schultz — Over 4.5 Receptions

Projection: 5–7 catches | 52 yards median

Target Share vs Zone: 23%

Route Participation: 87%

• Why It Works: Buffalo funnels targets to tight ends, allowing 5.9 TE receptions per game (bottom 7 NFL).

• Coverage Fit: Schultz excels vs Buffalo’s two-high shells — settling between hook zones and attacking linebackers in space.

• Game Script: Texans will need methodical drives, not bombs, to stay on schedule.

✓ Sharp Angle: Schultz is the most scheme-stable receiving prop on Houston’s side.

Nick Chubb — Over 21.5 Rushing Yards

Projection: 6–8 carries | 29 yards median

Yards After Contact: 2.9

Explosive Rate: 11% (10+ yard runs)

• Why It Works: Texans utilize Chubb in low-volume, high-efficiency bursts — gap and counter runs perfectly suited for short-yardage success.

• Buffalo Weakness: Bills allow 4.6 YPC and are bottom-10 in second-level yards.

• Low Line: At 21.5 yards, Chubb only needs 2–3 efficient carries to clear this.

✓ Sharp Angle: This is a classic “efficiency over volume” edge. One crease via power-O gets him halfway home.

Under 44.5 Total Points

Why the Under Fits the Script:

• Both defenses are top-half in red-zone stop rate, forcing field goals.

• Houston plays slow, 29th in situation-neutral pace.

• Buffalo is more conservative on early downs under the new offensive structure.

• Both offenses lean heavily on intermediate, methodical drives rather than explosives.

Projected Score:

Bills 23 — Texans 17

Total: 40 points

✓ Sharp Angle: The market expects efficiency, but not explosiveness — perfect environment for an under, especially on a short week.