TNF: Steelers @ Bengals Pick 5

Steelers Side

1. DK Metcalf — Over 68.5 Receiving Yards

   
   

   • Metcalf is the vertical alpha in their offense; most deep threat priority.

   • Bengals’ secondary tends to concede chunk downs; press cornerbacks with less safety help deep.

   • In games where Steelers lean passing (especially in neutral scripts), Metcalf’s share creeps higher.

     
     

2. Jonnu Smith — Over 27.5 Receiving Yards

   
   

   • With tight end depth limited for Cincinnati, Jonnu inherits more seam/drag assignments.

   • He can clear 28 yards with 2–3 catches given moderate depth and red zone work.

   • This is a low threshold over — the market often undervalues secondary TE usage in division games.

   
   

Bengals Side

3. Samaje Perine — Over 8.5 Receiving Yards

   
   

   • Perine functions as a pass-outlet back. In checkdown / screen heavy sets, he will see targets.

   • Bengals’ injury to tight ends forces more RB usage in passing game.

   • One medium dump-off catch is enough to clear this line.

   
   

4. Noah Fant — Over 3.5 Receptions

   
   

   • With Gesicki / Hudson out, Fant becomes one of the few trustworthy pass catchers in Cincinnati’s tree.

   • He should see 4–6 targets in the game, especially on third downs or tight spots.

   • Volume + safe zone role = good floor buy.

   
   

Game Total Play

5. Under 44.5

   
   

   • The total fits the profile: defenses will clamp, drives stall, fewer big plays.

   • Bengals especially have struggled to sustain high-scoring pace with backup QB and injured TE corps.

   • Sharps often lean under when games have tight spreads + compromised passing depth.

   • ESPN’s model suggests this lean based on both teams’ scoring output to date.