TNF: Vikings/Chargers Pick5

VIKINGS PROPS

Jordan Mason — Over 52.5 Rushing Yards

Projection: 14–16 carries | 73 yards median | Breakaway rate 10%

• Game Script: Vikings’ offensive plan should lean run-heavy to keep Herbert off the field. Expect > 55% rush rate in neutral downs.

• Defensive Matchup: Chargers rank 25th in run stop win rate and allow 4.7 YPC to RBs. Interior gaps have been soft on inside zone concepts.

• Player Trend: Mason has averaged 5.1 YPC this season and handles goal-to-goal snaps (70% of red-zone carries).

Sharp Angle: Books priced this as a 12-carry game. Minnesota wants to shorten possessions — Mason’s volume makes this number too low.

T.J. Hockenson — Over 3.5 Receptions

Projection: 5 catches | 51 yards | 25% target share vs zone

• Coverage Matchup: Chargers sit in Cover 3 on ~60% of snaps. Hockenson has been a zone-buster — 2.2 YPRR vs Cover 3 this season.

• Usage: Runs routes on 89% of dropbacks; used in motions and crossers to exploit linebacker depth.

• Trend: Cleared 4 receptions in three straight when facing single-high shells.

Sharp Angle: Game plan favors play-action and short intermediates. He’s the possession valve if Chargers’ pass rush wins early downs.

CHARGERS PROPS

Justin Herbert — Over 255.5 Passing Yards

Projection: 275–295 yards median | 6.9 YPA expected

• Reasoning: Vikings rank 2nd in rush EPA defense but 23rd in explosive pass rate allowed.

• Game Flow: Minnesota’s run-first plan will force Herbert into extended dropback mode late.

• Supporting Cast: Allen and Harris both thrive vs zone rotations — Herbert’s strength.

Sharp Angle: 255.5 is a discount for a QB averaging 35 attempts per game and 8.1 air yards per target. Expect volume driven over.

Tre Harris — Over 0.5 Receptions (Fanduel)

Usage: WR4 role | Routes per dropback ≈ 30% | Target rate 16%

• Context: Harris’ routes and targets rose each week. Coaches are mixing him in as motion option and boundary outlet.

• Probability: One catch at even money is high EV for a receiver logging ~15 routes per game.

Sharp Angle: One reception prop with defined role growth — cheap correlated add-on to Herbert passing yards.

Keenan Allen — Over 49.5 Receiving Yards

Projection: 7 targets | 6 recs | 72 yards median

• Matchup: Vikings rotate two-high looks (61%) to limit explosives. Allen averages 9.3 yards per target vs split-safety shells.

• Game Script: With Herbert throwing 35 + times, Allen has the cleanest path to consistent volume.

• Efficiency: 1.9 YPRR since Week 2 — still elite for a chain-mover.

Sharp Angle: Books over-corrected for “age decline.” He’s Herbert’s first read and zone breaker; 50 yards is a floor projection.