Baseball can be a cruel game sometimes and make you look foolish which it did to me last night. I lost by 0.5 on two picks yesterday; 0.5 run on the Orioles/Yankees over 5.5 F5 and 0.5 strikeouts on Tylor Megill over 4.5. I am sticking with the process of trying to find value on teams based on the situations and trends tonight.
Chicago White Sox vs. Kansas City Royals 8:10 PM ET
The White Sox opened -200 home favorites against the Royals with a 9.5 total. It is 9 in most places, and even 8.5 so shop around on baseball totals because 0.5 runs can be crucial. When I see two division teams playing, the first thing I look at is the season series. The Royals have hung with the White Sox this year in 13 games, the season series is 7-6 to the White Sox. The under has hit 6 in a row with most being in the 9 to 10 run range. The White Sox are hitting just .209 over the last 14 days with 3.7 runs per game. The Royals averaged 3.8 runs per game in the recent 4 game series against the White Sox.
BET – White Sox/Royals under 9 runs (-115 FanDuel) for 1 RW buck
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates 8:10 pm et
The Brewers enter Tuesday night as -250 favorites at home against the Pirates with a total of 9. My power ratings have the total closer to 8 and 8.5 so we get some great value on betting the Pirates under here. Houser typically does not go more than 6 innings per start so I just want to stick with an outcome related to him. The Pirates are batting just .193 and averaging 2.6 runs per game over their last 7. The trade of Adam Frazier has really taken its toll on this lineup.
BET – Houser under 2.5 earned runs (-135) for 1 RW buck
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs 8:40 PM ET
The Rockies are 16-4 as home favorites and 30-13-10 in F5's (+1808; by far the most profitable situation) facing a depleted Cubs team that traded away Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, and Javier Baez. The Cubs are one of the worst F5 teams at 17-28-7.
Kyle Freeland has been sneaky good over his 7 starts with a 1.98 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, and 34/8 K:BB rate.
BET – Rockies -0.5 F5 (-110) for 1 RW buck
Houston Astros at Los Angeles Dodgers 10:10 PM ET
Normally when I see Walker Buehler at home I automatically think under the total. But the Astros are 11-3 to the over as road dogs. If you think about it, the Astros are usually only a road dog when their pitcher is much weaker vs. the opposition. But the Astros are a top 5 offense so the games typically end up with a lot of runs. Only 1 game out of the 13 has gone under 8 runs.
The Dodgers average 5.1 runs per game at home and the Astros average 5.79 runs on the road for a combined 10.89.
BET – Astros/Dodgers over 8 (-115) for 1 RW buck