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Best line to target:

📌 Bam Adebayo OVER 31.5 P+R

Why this is one of the strongest bets from our entire dataset:

🔥 #1 Game Environment (MIA @ DAL)

We repeatedly graded Game 9 as an A environment, with increased pace and DAL having a weak interior.

🔥 Usage Spike

Rozier out →

Bam’s usage, shots, and rebounding all rise.

🔥 Matchup Edge:

Dallas ranks bottom-tier in:

• Rim protection

• Defensive rebounding

• Paint efficiency allowed

🔥 Miami offense now funnels through:

• Herro + Bam only

🔥 Advanced Stats (Cleaning the Glass):

• Huge bump in rebound chances in high-possession matchups

• Increased on-ball touches without Rozier/Powell

This is our cleanest correlation between:

Environment × role × matchup × usage × projections.

⭐

PROP #2 — Alperen Sengun OVER Assists

Best line to target:

📌 Sengun OVER 6.5 assists (or 5.5 alt)

Why this is a high-confidence edge:

🔥 Game 7 is a B+ environment

• Fast pace

• Weak Kings interior defense

• High scoring expectation for Houston

🔥 Sengun’s passing role explodes in this matchup

From stats:

• Top assist rate among centers

• High usage as a facilitator

• Kings allow high assist rates to opposing bigs (no Sabonis rim anchor)

🔥 Houston injury + rotation tightening

= More touches through Sengun’s handoffs, elbow touches, and post creation.

This is a very sharp model-aligned play.

⭐

PROP #3 — Tyler Herro OVER 3-Pointers Made

Best line to target:

📌 Herro OVER 2.5 threes

Why it hits our model criteria perfectly:

🔥 #1 Environment again (MIA @ DAL)

The pace and spacing benefits Herro’s volume.

🔥 Usage spike without Rozier

Herro becomes the full primary scorer + shot creator.

🔥 Dallas weakness

DAL ranks bottom-tier in:

• Guard 3PT defense

• Allowing pull-up threes

• Allowing off-screen threes

• Closeout discipline

🔥 Schematic matchup edge

Herro gets:

• Drop coverage

• Switchable wings (who allow pull-ups)

• Transition three attempts (extra possessions)

This is a clean pace + volume + role + matchup alignment.