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Week 3 College Football Picks

Another 3-2 week based on what was published. I can happily count Pitt as a win too as the line closed north of the seven points they lost by, but it was only 6.5 at the time of submission. That's three straight winning weeks regardless of how we split that. This week was a challenge for me. We've got a lot of really big spreads, and picking underdogs isn't always my forte. Mid-week line movement didn't hurt me last week, but it's taken North Carolina State off the board for me this week, as I liked them more around a touchdown than double digits. Oklahoma is low-hanging fruit too. I got in at (-8) when it opened Sunday. I'm surprised it's not north of two touchdowns presently. Let's see what we find!

Georgia (-24.5) at South Carolina

A road conference opener where we need four TDs to cover may not seem ideal. And this is a rivalry, one I know too much about thanks to my four years at USC. Maybe the 'Cocks show up for a bit, but they are also selling tickets at Costco, so I'd expect UGA fans to show up big in Columbia. The simple truth is South Carolina isn't going to score much, if at all. Their offensive line is simply dreadful, creating 1.95 yards per carry on the ground, while also allowing nine sacks through two weeks. UGA covers at 28-0, and it will be worse than that. First-half or first-quarter odds can also be considered if you don't love the big number.

Purdue (+1.5) at Syracuse

The Orange are in this column for the third time in four weeks, and I'm 1-1 thus far, so we'll see if I've figured them out. I find their win over Louisville to further look less impressive after the Cards' offense struggled at UCF and they are now home underdogs to FSU. And while I hit on the Orange blowing out UConn last's just UConn. Purdue was probably a tad unlucky against Penn State. Defensively, they've been stout against the run, allowing just 2.2 yards per carry. That suggests they at least limit Sean Tucker some. An ascending yet bottom-tier ACC school likely shouldn't be favored over a mid-tier and hopefully ascending Big Ten squad, so we'll exploit that. Purdue wins straight up.

Mississippi at Georgia Tech under 64.0

Please line shop, as this total can be found as low as 62, which can make all the difference when betting points, which we all know I'm awful at. But on a slate where nothing stands out for me, I'll roll the dice. Georgia Tech is bad offensively, and while Mississippi hasn't been tested defensively, they are tackling well and keeping plays in front of them. Flipping sides, Ole Miss' offensive line is woeful, and they haven't fully settled on a quarterback. I expect they do here with Jaxson Dart, but he's a gunslinger that forces balls into tight windows. If GT can get some pressure, that leads to turnovers...which their offense won't covert. Ole Miss should keep GT to around 21 points, which means they need a lot to push this over.

Vanderbilt (+3) at Northern Illinois

Another repeat team in this column, Vanderbilt has treated me well thus far, covering at Hawaii and getting crushed by Wake Forest. It's certainly a big deal for NIU to get an SEC team on campus, even if it's the Commodores. But c'mon, they are favored? Vanderbilt is averaging 6.3 yards per carry on the ground, and I expect they'll have that kind of success again here against an undersized MAC squad. That should force NIU to be perfect when they get the ball, as it will be few and far between. NIU is 1-1 with a four-point scoring differential; against Tulsa and Eastern Illinois. Vanderbilt has to be a step up, right? Seven of their wins last year came by one possession, so even if an upset is in store, a blowout shouldn't be.

Washington (-3) vs. Michigan State

Truthfully, I'm banking on a vintage showing from the Washington fan base, making Husky Stadium the hostile facility it was in days of yore. Both teams are facing massive steps up in class after two soft contests, and while I love everything I've seen from Washington's new coaching staff, the fact remains Michigan State's is more established, and seemingly further ahead. But Indiana transfer QB Michael Penix is off to a terrific start out west and gashed Scottie Hazelton's defense for 320 yards and two scores back in 2020. If the Huskies D can contain Sparty on the ground, their passing attack will take over, followed by the crowd en route to a rout!

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