MIL (-2) @ CHA O/U: 234.5
UTA (-11.5) @ DET O/U: 222.5
BOS (-5.5) vs. IND O/U: 215.5
NYK (-6.5) vs. SAS O/U: 214.5
PHI (-10.5) @ HOU O/U: 225.5
CLE (-4.5) @ SAC O/U: 218.5
BKN (-10.5) @ POR O/U: 225.5
It appears that the Bucks and Hornets hold the most value tonight with the high projected total, and several late-swap opportunities exist with the Nets and Trail Blazers if you find yourself behind the eight ball early in the evening.
MIL Jrue Holiday (ankle) - OUT
MIL Grayson Allen (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT
MIL Pat Connaughton (COVID-19 Protocols) - QUESTIONABLE
MIL George Hill (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT
The deficiencies at the guard position will mean increased run for Donte DiVincenzo ($3,900) and Wesley Matthews ($4,000), while Bobby Portis ($6,000) should get a slight boost from Connaughton's absence.
UTA Rudy Gobert (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT
UTA Rudy Gay (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT
UTA Joe Ingles (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT
IND Caris LeVert (COVID-19 Protocols) - QUESTIONABLE
IND Malcolm Brogdon (Achilles) - QUESTIONABLE
IND Torrey Craig (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT
We're still in a holding pattern for Indiana's backcourt. LeVert, Brogdon and Craig could all return tonight, but Duane Washington ($4,200) and Chris Duarte ($4,900) will step in if the tags hold for the Pacers' top two guards.
SAS Derrick White (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT
SAS Keldon Johnson (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT
SAS Devin Vassell (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT
Pivots for this injury situation will be challenging, but Lonnie Walker ($4,400) and Keita Bates-Diop ($3,900) figure to be the best options for increased production, plus an elite prospect that we will name in a moment.
NYK Kemba Walker (knee) - QUESTIONABLE
NYK Evan Fournier (thigh) - QUESTIONABLE
NYK Nerlens Noel (conditioning) - QUESTIONABLE
Don't go out of your way to look for value amid these injuries. There are better opportunities elsewhere on the slate.
PHI Tyrese Maxey (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT
PHI Shake Milton (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT
HOU Alperen Sengun (ankle) - OUT
SAC Richaun Holmes (COVID-19 Protocols) - QUESTIONABLE
BKN LaMarcus Aldridge (foot) - OUT
An absence from Aldridge creates an excellent opportunity for Nicolas Claxton ($5,500) once again.
POR Damian Lillard (abdomen) - OUT
POR CJ McCollum (chest) - OUT
POR Norman Powell (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT
POR Larry Nance (knee) - OUT
My top pivot from players listed above is Portis by a mile against Charlotte.
We have six players at $10k or above on tonight's slate, and Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,500)ranks as our first solid endorsement against Charlotte. Over two games against the Hornets, Giannis has averaged almost 70 FP. I am also a fan of Dejounte Murray ($10,400), considering his depleted backcourt and lack of minute restriction. James Harden ($9,400) is also intriguing at this salary as a road appearance from Kyrie Irving ($7,800) will impact Harden's output, though we don't have enough of a sample size to determine its benefit or detriment.
EXPECTED CHALK AND CORE TARGETS
Jusuf Nurkic, POR ($7,400) vs. BKN
Nurkic represents Portland's best chance to win against the Nets, and his recent string of double-doubles reflects that. He could hit the 6x multiplier relative to his salary in this spot, with the potential to eclipse 50 FP.
Christian Wood, HOU ($7,000) vs. PHI
Wood's dual eligibility, lower salary and lack of backup support make him a candidate for increased usage and an excellent total. He did not play in the team's most recent matchup against Philly last week, so it will be interesting to see if he can make any headway against Joel Embiid.
Tyrese Haliburton, SAC ($6,800) vs. CLE
I prefer Haliburton over De'Aaron Fox because the point-per-dollar salary differential of $1,300 for Fox isn't justified by Haliburton's numbers against Cleveland. Haliburton has run hot over his past six games, averaging just north of 35 FP per game.
Also consider: Tobias Harris, PHI ($7,800) @ HOU
Cade Cunningham, DET ($6,600) vs. UTA
I will continue to plug Cunningham into my GPPs because his upside is immense, and despite Utah's stingy defense, I believe the rookie will be able to find an opening. Although his paltry 38.1 percent shooting continues to frustrate, his salary gives him enough value to warrant consideration.
Alec Burks, NYK ($5,800) vs. SAS
The only thing that would push me off Burks would be an active Kemba Walker, which is always a possibility. If Walker sits, I am a big fan of Burks, who will get most of the looks in the backcourt. Although he hasn't shot the ball well over the past two weeks, he's deadly accurate from the charity stripe and can draw a foul with the best of them.
Robert Covington, POR ($5,300) vs. BKN
It gives me no joy to endorse Covington's variance, but the absence of Norman Powell seems to be a green light for the veteran. With more popular pivots for Portland, Covington may escape the gaze of many participants, but he appears to be a cinch to start and put in over 30 minutes of court time.
Although they occupy different positions, I am bunching the two together due to their similar salary. I am fine with mix-and-matching the duo, who will often end up as the top performers for the Kings. With their salaries, they only need FP totals of 25 or higher to pay off.
Also consider: Obi Toppin, DET ($3,700) vs. SAS