Seattle Seahawks (+5.5) at Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals showed last week they haven't had a complete collapse although they lost three in a row before beating the Cowboys. The Seahawks will look to avenge a loss to Arizona from earlier this season and oddly enough, the Cardinals have a 3-4 record at home. Seattle should play loose in this one and try to end the season on a positive note; don't be surprised if they open up the playbook and use a trick play or two in an attempt to get a long score.
Atlanta Falcons +3.5 vs New Orleans Saints
I love taking a home dog in a divisional game and while the Saints have something to play for (Atlanta does not), it's doubtful the Falcons roll over at home. Atlanta beat New Orleans earlier this season and will just have to contain Taysom Hill to give themselves a chance to win.
New York Giants +7/Over 37.5 2-leg parlay: +264
Let's get frisky Week 18 and take a two-leg parlay that hasn't hit in quite some time (Giants plus the point and the over in that game). Washington has been hit hard on defense this season and New York has been awful overall making the over here my preferred wager between the two. My train of thought here is that both teams will need to score to hit the over and taking the Giants at home with a touchdown seems the better option between the two.
Rex Burkhead UNDER 41.5 Rushing Yards
The Titans have arguably the best run defense in the league and while he's hit this over the last two games, they were against much inferior run defenses. The Titans have a lot to play for and are 10 point favorites, meaning there should be a lot of passing, playing from behind for the Texans in the second half. It also appears David Johnson will be back in the mix which should take a few carries away from Burkhead. Here's my favorite prop of the week.
Taysom Hill UNDER 201.5 Passing Yards
Recency bias will have some looking at this line and immediately lean towards the over given that Hill had 222 passing yards just last week against the Panthers. Hill has gone over this mark in both home starts but on the road has games of only 154 and 175 passing yards. I'd expect this to be a slow paced game with the defenses dominating and therefore Hill fails to reach the over.
Rashod Bateman OVER 33.5 Receiving Yards
Ok, I'll take the bait here (see what I did?) and take the over despite Bateman only hitting it in two of his last four games. The key for me here is he's playing the Steelers who are worse against opposing wide receivers than the other four teams he's just played. What I like about this is that it could easily be over by halftime or even the end of the third quarter. All Bateman needs is one big play to hit this mark.
Jonathan Taylor to Score 2+ Touchdowns (+175)
If you're comfortable with -300 for Taylor to be an "anytime" touchdown scorer, it seems like it's close to a sure thing. The Colts need to win this game and it seems like they finally figured out lately that they should lean on their best offensive weapon. Taylor scoring 3+ touchdowns is +700 in case you were wondering.
Saquon Barkley +150
I would have thought there would be better odds here as Barkley has only four touchdowns this season although he did miss four games. What's encouraging is the Giants gave him 18 carries last week and if I believe in the over, I have to think Barkley finds the end zone. Devontae Booker is +450 to score and had 20 touches himself last week; I can see taking both of them.
Dawson Knox +150
Knox has grown into a solid red-zone threat and I'd guess most people don't realize he's up to nine touchdowns on the season. The Bills are a solid 16-point favorite in this game and this game does mean something if they want to win the AFC East. If you feel like getting frisky, he's +850 to score 2+ touchdowns.