🔥 Fontaines 5 NBA Card DEC 18th

Tonight’s NBA slate is loaded with process-driven edges — the kind of spots that don’t always pop on the surface but show up when you understand usage, matchup, and role changes. These are the plays I’m rocking with today, and every one of them has a clear path to cashing.

Let’s get into it 👇

🏀 Kris Dunn (Clippers) Over 3.5 Assists (+102)

0.5u

This is a role + price play. Oklahoma City ranks 18th in opponent assist percentage, and when James Harden or CP3 aren’t on the floor, Kris Dunn’s assist rate jumps to 42.5% this season. Yes, it’s a smaller sample — but the usage is real, the minutes are there, and we’re getting plus money for him to do something that fits his role perfectly. At +102, I’m clicking every time.

🏀 P.J. Washington (Mavericks) Over 24.5 PRA (-110)

0.55u

This one is all about availability and opportunity. There are multiple questionable tags floating around, and whenever Dallas is even slightly shorthanded, P.J.’s usage spikes. He’s carrying a 23% usage rate without AD, and with Gafford still limited, the rebounding and secondary scoring opportunities stay open. This line doesn’t fully account for the uncertainty — and that’s where we step in.

🏀 Orlando Magic +7.5 (-108)

0.54u

This is a simple numbers play. Orlando continues to be undervalued in these spots, and getting more than two possessions with a team that competes defensively and doesn’t quit is something I’m always interested in. We’re not asking them to dominate — just to stay within range.

🏀 Dallas Mavericks +5.5 (-110)

0.55u

Another spread that feels a touch inflated. Dallas has enough shot creation and size to hang around, and when you can grab 5.5 points in a matchup that projects closer than the market suggests, you take it. This is a classic “stay alive all game” type of play.

🏀 Alperen Şengün (Rockets) Over 6.5 Assists (-124)

0.62u

Şengün continues to operate as a hub, not just a scorer. Houston’s offense runs through him, and his passing numbers reflect that. This line sits in a sweet spot where one good stretch of ball movement can carry the over. As long as he’s facilitating — and he always is — this number stays in play.

🏀 Reed Sheppard (Rockets) Over 11.5 Points (-109)

Sheppard is back to coming off the bench, but the minutes and shot volume are still there. He just took 17 shots against Denver, and now draws a Pelicans team that ranks near the bottom of the league in defense and near the top in pace over the last 10 games. He’s gone over this number in 11 of his last 17 games, and the matchup screams scoring opportunities.

🏀 Brandon Ingram Over 9.5 Rebounds + Assists (-140)

Without Giannis, Milwaukee has been a mess on the glass, posting the second-worst total rebounding percentage in the NBA over the last five games. Ingram has cleared this number in four of his last five, and already cruised past it earlier this season against Milwaukee. The matchup, role, and recent form all line up.

🧠 Final Word

This card isn’t about chasing highlights — it’s about understanding who’s handling the ball, who’s benefiting from absences, and where the market hasn’t fully adjusted yet. Strong roles, fair numbers, and controlled unit sizing across the board.

Smart reads. Solid process. Let’s let the game come to us.

🔒 You can’t win if you don’t lock it in, twin.