Wednesday's slate kicks off at 7:30 p.m. There is a sizeable time gap between the late Clippers-Kings game and the rest of the slate, making the late matchup the ideal late-swap spot on the dock tonight.
BOS (-5.5) v. CLE O/U: 211.5
ATL (-8.5) vs. ORL O/U: 215.5
CHI (-9) vs. TOR O/U: 213.5
MIL (-9.5) vs. HOU O/U: 224.5
DEN (-5.5) @ OKC O/U: 224.5
LAC (-4) @ SAC O/U: 219.5
We will outline some essential value spots in the injury section as we navigate for bargains amid the numerous health and safety protocol situations. It goes without saying that we should stay vigilant with our lineups and keep an eye on late-breaking news – the landscape can change quickly.
CLE Jarrett Allen (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT
CLE Evan Mobley (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT
CLE Isaac Okoro (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT
BOS Al Horford (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT
Robert Williams ($5,600) and Enes Freedom ($4,300) will be the top replacements for Horford, but picking between the two will be a tough call. If we are looking at recency, Freedom seems to have the advantage here.
ORL Cole Anthony (ankle) - QUESTIONABLE
ORL Wendell Carter (leg) - QUESTIONABLE
ORL Mo Bamba (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT
ATL Trae Young (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT
ATL Clint Capela (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT
ATL Bogdan Bogdanovic (ankle) PROBABLE
ATL Danilo Gallinari (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT
Atlanta will have our BEST pivots for the night, so much so that I am putting 'BEST' in caps, so you pay attention. At the risk of not having enough to talk about in the endorsement section, let's just discuss Atlanta now. Delon Wright ($3,700) is my favorite budget pivot on the slate by a wide margin. If Bogdan Bogdanovic ($6,200) plays as expected, I will take a couple of points off of Wright and Kevin Huerter ($5,500), and I am a bigger fan of paying the $790 differential from Huerter to Bogdan here anyway. In Capela's absence, Onyeka Okongwu ($4,000) will get the start, and John Collins ($7,400) will also be a great play opposite Orlando's withered interior.
TOR Fred VanVleet (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT
TOR Pascal Siakam (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT
TOR Scottie Barnes (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT
TOR Gary Trent (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT
TOR Precious Achiuwa (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT
TOR Khem Birch (knee) - QUESTIONABLE
The only reason Toronto doesn't overtake Atlanta as the best value spot is the overall quality of what remains for the Raptors, as well as a formidable opponent. Still, there's a lot of goodness to find for a low salary here. Chris Boucher ($5,100) is my favorite call amid the depleted lineup, followed closely by Yuta Watanabe ($4,300). Svi Mykhailiuk ($3,600) will also see a bump in usage. While OG Anunoby ($7.900) would typically make sense as the only remaining starter, the low O/U total gives me pause due to his potential to beat value compared to the other budget options available.
CHI Alex Caruso (foot) - OUT
CHI Zach LaVine (COVID-19 Protocols) - DOUBTFUL
CHI Derrick Jones (hamstring) - OUT
With Lavine and Caruso out, Coby White ($5,500) is a clear pivot at his low salary, but it bears mentioning that Alfonzo McKinnie ($4,400) saw almost 30 minutes and crushed value in the previous game. I am a big fan of him as a contrarian option tonight.
HOU Christian Wood (knee) - QUESTIONABLE
HOU Kevin Porter (thigh) - OUT
HOU Jalen Green (hamstring) - OUT
Alperen Sengun ($5,600) will step in if Wood can't play and isn't a bad option independent of Wood's status. Things return to a bit of normalcy in the backcourt rotation amid Porter's absence, as Eric Gordon ($5,600) and Armoni Brooks ($4,500) are both off the injury report.
MIL Giannis Antetokounmpo (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT
MIL Bobby Portis (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT
We'll hint at some obvious plays in a moment, but start getting comfortable with the idea of slotting Sandro Mamukelashvili ($4,100) into a couple of lineups. While DeMarcus Cousins($5,800), will be immensely popular and also a bit expensive for this pivot.
DEN Aaron Gordon (hamstring) - QUESTIONABLE
DEN JaMychal Green (ankle, knee) - QUESTIONABLE
I expect Gordon will try to play through this injury, so I don't anticipate any significant pivots in this spot.
LAC Marcus Morris (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT
For reasons that we'll get into in a moment, the Clippers lineup will revert to normal for the first time in over a week. Terance Mann ($5,500) is the best candidate for a boost here.
SAC De'Aaron Fox (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT
SAC Richaun Holmes (eye) - QUESTIONABLE
SAC Marvin Bagley (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT
SAC Terence Davis (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT
SAC Alex Len (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT
SAC Davion Mitchell (COVID-19 Protocols) - OUT
The Kings are running out of players, so I wouldn't be surprised to see Holmes give it a go tonight with his eye. Chimezie Metu ($6,000) will continue to be in a favorable spot if Holnes doesn't play. We'll discuss other options for Sacramento in a moment.
With all the value available on the slate, it makes a lot of sense to go big or go home with Nikola Jokic ($11,400), the only player above 10k on the slate. He's yet to play the Thunder, but it's likely a smash spot for the All-Star. Paul George's ($9,200) return will garner much attention at what should be a favorable salary relative to his production, so he will merit high exposure tonight.
Due to the size of the slate, we will expand the scope of this section a bit. You have to consider both Khris Middleton ($7,900) and Jrue Holiday ($9,600) tonight, although I'm more inclined to favor Middleton because Holiday's salary is bordering on the unreasonable. I am not a fan of what FanDuel did to Tyrese Haliburton ($8,100) and Lonzo Ball's ($8,000) as they are rendered almost unplayable at these salary numbers. I would consider Ball, along with DeMar DeRozan ($8,900), against the Raptors, but the blowout risk lowers their exposure.
Also consider: Nikola Vucevic, CHI ($8,800) vs. TOR
EXPECTED CHALK AND VALUE PLAYS
Due to the size of the slate, we will combine these two sections. When looking for value, refer to the injury section and focus on the tremendous values available for ATLANTA and TORONTO.
Josh Giddey, OKC ($7,000) vs., DEN
This isn't an excellent spot for the Thunder, but they are completely healthy and playing at home, making Giddey a hard guy to fade at this salary, especially when you consider some of his recent stat lines. After a subpar game against Dallas, he had a spectacular week with 28 assists and 32 rebounds over a three-game span. If he keeps that kind of pace, Goddey can be a nightly-triple-double threat.
Not only are they at a similar salary, I project them with an almost identical total and think they are interchangeable as a mix-or-match option for Sacramento, although a bulk crunch could see them show up together once or twice. The duo will probably be one of the highest scorers on the slate next to Haliburton, whose salary I may be forced to stomach if I elect to fade both of these top options. Hield will hold the lower rostership here and could outdo Barnes if he gets hot early from long range.
Cedi Osman, CLE ($5,300) @ BOS
I'm not removing Darius Garland ($7,900) from my endorsements, but Osman will play a key role in absorbing Allen's production, and the lack of options inside will make him more valuable than Garland, who may see a slight assist dip in this scenario. Osman enjoyed dual eligibility and has been clutch from the bench recently, and the slew of injuries could put him in the starting five tonight.