Games
San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers (UNDER 47.5) (-114)
Another team I trust (SF) facing one I don't (GB). Like last week, the key to San Fran staying in this game is to control the clock with their power running game and keep the ball out of the hands of Aaron Rodgers (and Jimmy G, for that matter). Run the ball, limit turnovers, and roll clock. The danger to that formula (and the under) is Green Bay getting out to a big lead and forcing the Niners to ditch the run. However, GB is just 3-14 ATS in the first quarter this year, so fast starts haven't been their forte. San Fran is built to beat Green Bay….I'm not sure they have enough in the tank to do that, but I expect a hard-fought, low-scoring war.
Kansas City Chiefs (-1.5) (-114) vs Buffalo Bills
I admit I was blinded by Bill Belichick last week. In hindsight, that was a terrible read with a rookie QB making his first playoff start. However, I'll still ask, what has Buffalo actually done outside of beating up on mediocre/bad teams all year? The Vegas power ratings love the Bills, and I'm going to take advantage of their inflated value here. You're saying Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid are at home, in the playoffs, in January, and only favored by 1.5 points? That's almost an auto-play by itself. Add on the facts that KC has revenge, Buffalo is on a 1-7 ATS run in January, and the Chiefs are 6-1 ATS when John Hussey is the referee assigned to their game, and it is impossible to turn down this value. I think the Chiefs win comfortably.
Player Props
Ja'Marr Chase over 81.5 receiving yards (-120)
I posted this one on Twitter a few days ago at 75.5 yards, so this has definitely moved up some (always shop around for the best price). That being said, I think this has the makings of a big game for Chase, as the Titans are weak in pass coverage and susceptible to the big play (Chase's specialty). You might also consider a longest-reception play on Chase for that same reason (available in the 25-yard range). I'm also a fan of the Higgins/Chase anytime touchdown combo, as it's very likely at least one of them scores, with both scoring being more likely than neither scoring (make sure both players are plus-money, the higher the better obviously).
Tyler Boyd over 4.0 receptions (-115)
While the third wheel in the Bengals passing game, Boyd still receives decent volume, and has recorded 4+ receptions in four out of his last five games. With the Bengals figuring to air it out today (especially as underdogs), this is an attractive number. Decent chance at a push, but Boyd is much more likely for 5 catches than 3.
Aaron Jones over 51.5 rushing yards (-115)
I actually prefer his combo prop (rushing + receiving), as Jones should be active in the passing game as well (though perhaps slightly less than normal with the return of Randall Cobb today). Aaron Jones comes into the playoffs fresh, with this being his first game in a month. It's highly likely the Packers will get Jones involved Saturday, especially if/when they're playing with a lead (which seems likely).
Brandon Aiyuk over 51.5 receiving yards (-115)
As mentioned last week, Aiyuk has become the 49ers leading wide receiver due to Deebo Samuel's increasing backfield presence, and yet, sportsbooks are still listing Aiyuk's receiving total lower than Deebo's. There's also a chance the 49ers receiving usage could spike today if they fall behind and are forced to throw more, which is definitely possible here. With Aiyuk having recorded a 30+ yard reception in four out of his last five games, he figures to clear this modest number on any kind of decent volume. PS - Speaking of Deebo, I like his rushing prop today (not available here). He spiked to a career-high 10 carries last week, and the Packers allow 4.7 yards per carry (third-worst in the league). Seems likely he can hit 40+ rushing yards today.
Devin Singletary over 60.5 rushing yards (-115)
As mentioned in the Bills write-up, the Chiefs' run defense allows the second-highest yards per carry (4.8), while Singletary's usage has spiked in recent weeks, averaging 18 carries over his last 5 games. There's also a good chance that he'll receive a positive game script here, as I suspect the Bills will be playing with a lead through at least a part of this game. Expect a solid showing from Singletary on Sunday.
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