top of page

MLB Bets & Expert Picks for May 8

Washington Nationals at Baltimore Orioles   

The Nationals have been the most profitable team in baseball at +$1017 (+$929 on the road) because of the tremendous value they have had on the road as underdogs. They have won seven out of 10 straight up as road dogs. Mitchell Parker is another Nats arm who has been solid this year, with a 2.53 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and 19 strikeouts in 21.1 innings. 

MLB Picks for Nationals at Orioles 

  • Nationals ML for 1 unit (FanDuel +150) 

Seattle Mariners at Minnesota Twins   

I am not a fan of Chris Paddack (affectionately know as "Padlock") by some in the betting community, but he gets the worst team in terms of strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers. The Mariners are dead last with 29 percent. He's also been much better at home with six, 10, and five strikeouts in his last three home games versus just two, two and two in his last three road starts.

MLB Picks for Mariners at Twins 

Boston Red Sox at Atlanta Braves  

In the much-anticipated revenge game for Chris Sale against the Red Sox, I like the matchup for Sale as the Red Sox have historically struggled against left-handed pitching on the road. The Sox are dead last in strikeout rate against left-handed pitchers at 29.5 percent. 

Sale's numbers overall have improved to start the season versus 2023 with a lower walk rate, higher swinging K rate and lower WHIP. The Red Sox are stacking the lineup with seven right-handed batters, but the majority of those hitters are below average. 

MLB Picks for Red Sox at Braves 

  • Chris Sale OVER 7.5 strikeouts for 1.1 unit (BetMGM -110)

MLB Best Bets Today Recap

  • Nationals ML for 1 unit (FanDuel +150) 

  • Chris Paddack OVER 5.5 strikeouts for 1.12 unit (FanDuel -112) 

  • Chris Sale OVER 7.5 strikeouts for 1.1 unit (BetMGM -110)

MLB Picks for Orioles vs. Nationals

  • Ryan Mountcastle Over 1.5 Total Bases (-117 on BetRivers Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck

Seattle Mariners vs. Minnesota Twins Best Bets

We go from a righty bat that picks on lefties to the opposite scenario for this prop. The Mariners' Josh Rojas has been one of Seattle's most consistent hitters in the first month-plus, generating an elite .345 average and .969 OPS across his first 95 plate appearances. 

That includes a .364 average and 1.028 OPS versus righties, against which Rojas has logged all but seven of his plate appearances. The majority of the damage Rojas has exerted has been of the small-ball variety, however, as 20 of his 29 hits have been singles.

That suits us just fine for a prop that cashes if Rojas records at least one knock Wednesday, especially considering the starting pitching matchup against the Twins' Chris Paddack. The veteran right-hander is struggling against lefty hitters yet again this season, allowing a .343 average and .373 wOBA in a 74-batter sample in that split. 

Rojas has hit safely in all but six starts this season, and it's also worth noting Twins relievers have pitched to an 8.59 ERA, .344 average and .434 wOBA against the 37 left-handed batters they've faced thus far in May.

MLB Picks for Mariners vs Twins

  • Josh Rojas Over 0.5 singles (-110 on BetMGM Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck


San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies Best Bets

I felt compelled to include at least one hitter prop from tonight's Coors Field matchup, and LaMonte Wade represents an excellent path to potential profits against a starting pitcher in Peter Lambert who's traditionally struggled against left-handed hitters.

Wade has gotten off to an excellent start in 2024, producing a .351 average and .927 OPS across his first 101 plate appearances. The veteran has a massive 20.8 percent walk rate as well, and he's compiled an even higher 22.6 percent figure in that category – along with a .366 average and .441 wOBA – when facing righties on the road.

Wade has been hitting second or third in the order exclusively, setting him up for plenty of run-scoring opportunities. While the hitters behind him haven't always cashed those in as evidenced by his modest 12 runs thus far, Wednesday night should have a good chance of being an exception considering San Francisco's 5.5-run projected total at Coors. 

Lambert could certainly do his part to get Wade on base, as he's surrendered a .375 average and .456 wOBA to left-handed hitters. Then, Rockies relievers may also be good facilitators for this prop, considering they've pitched to a 5.47 ERA, .292 BAA and .359 wOBA against the 114 left-handed bats they've faced at Coors since the start of the season.

MLB Picks for Giants vs Rockies 

  • LaMonte Wade Over 0.5 runs scored (-123 on Caesars Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck

MLB Best Bets Today Recap

  • Ryan Mountcastle Over 1.5 Total Bases (-117 on BetRivers Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck

  • Josh Rojas Over 0.5 singles (-110 on BetMGM Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck

  • LaMonte Wade Over 0.5 runs scored (-123 on Caesars Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck

76 views0 comments


bottom of page