San Francisco Giants at New York Mets
Two teams headed in opposite directions and a significant edge in starting position on the Giants side has me leaning on them for a best bet today. The Giants are 14-6 over their last 20, and 19-11 over their last 30; while the Mets are 3-7, 6-14, 10-20 over the last 10/20/30 games.
The Giants are also 10-2 in their last 12 on the road with a team batting average of .274 and 6.5 runs per game. The Mets are hitting .218 and averaging 3.6 runs in their last 12 home games.
MLB Best Bets for Giants at Mets
Giants ML for 1.24 unit (FanDuel -124)
Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves
MLB Best Bets for Marlins at Braves
This one is a little risky in that both teams are playing so well over a long stretch, but the Braves are at home and the Marlins are having a bullpen game. The combination of taking the Braves OVER and the run line has been profitable over the last month.
The Braves' numbers over the last 23 games: .306 batting average (.314 at home), .371 on-base, .556 slugging, 17.7% strikeout rate, and 6.8 runs per game, while allowing 4.2 runs per game (+2.6 run differential).
Braves OVER 5.5 runs for 1.05 unit (DraftKings -105)
Braves -1.5 for 1 unit (DraftKings +100)
Houston Astros at Texas Rangers
Jon Gray has been on a nice heater over his last 8 starts: 5-2, 1.97 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, 50:11 K:BB. The one exception was a start against the Blue Jays when he allowed six earned runs over 2.1 innings. The Astros are going with Ronel Blanco as the starter, and he has four career starts with a 4.70 ERA and 21:11 K:BB over 23 innings. The scary part about Blanco is the seven home runs allowed in those four starts, and now he's going against the best offense in the American League.
You get some better value on the F5 side vs. the money or run lines, and I prefer to do that because I am betting on Gray vs. Blanco mostly.
MLB Best Bets for Astros at Rangers
Rangers -0.5 F5 for 1.4 unit (DraftKings -140)
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MLB Best Bets Today Recap
Giants ML for 1.24 unit (FanDuel -124)
Braves OVER 5.5 runs for 1.05 unit (DraftKings -105)
Braves -1.5 for 1 unit (DraftKings +100)
Rangers -0.5 F5 for 1.4 unit (DraftKings -140
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