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MLB Picks and Predictions for Aug. 16

The upcoming matchup between the Los Angeles Angels and the Texas Rangers, all eyes are on Shohei Ohtani. Despite facing a respectable pitcher in RHP Jon Gray, Ohtani's exceptional performance this season demands attention and a closer look at the player prop bets.

Jon Gray boasts a solid 3.65 ERA and 4.23 xERA, with his SLG allowed and xSLG allowed hovering around league averages. However, Ohtani's statistics far exceed the league average, justifying a more favorable price for him to record multiple bases. BetMGM offers Ohtani's Over 1.5 Total Bases at -105 (51.2%), a tempting proposition considering his exceptional performance.

Ohtani's .429 xwOBA and .641 xSLG stand in the 99th percentile, highlighting his offensive prowess. Particularly against opposite-handed pitchers, Ohtani has excelled this season. As a left-handed batter, he boasts a .320 batting average, along with 53 extra-base hits and a .547 SLG against RHPs. With 31 home runs against righties, Ohtani is a consistent offensive threat.

While the Rangers have managed to limit Ohtani's performance in the series, his career stats against Gray suggest a potential breakthrough. Ohtani holds an impressive .857 SLG against Gray, including two hits, two extra-base hits, and a home run in just seven at-bats. Moreover, Globe Life Field's park factors favor left-handed batters, potentially favoring Ohtani's offensive output.

Although Ohtani has experienced a cold streak in the series, his overall performance indicates an imminent return to his dominant form. This makes him a prime candidate for offensive fireworks in the game against the Rangers.

Best Angels-Rangers Player Prop: Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 Total Bases -105 at BetMGM

Picks Recap:

  • Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 Total Bases -105

Entering the game, Cincinnati possesses a relatively modest .322 wOBA against right-handed pitchers in August, accompanied by a 30.2 percent strikeout rate in that split. However, Syndergaard's current performance suggests he might not exploit this weakness effectively. His 5.7 K/9 is the lowest of his career, making him a middling presence on the mound.

For Wednesday's showdown, the focus is on seizing betting opportunities that align with the game dynamics. Here's a recap of the top Game Focus Best Bets:

  1. Reds -0.5- 1st 5 Innings (-120 on DraftKings Sportsbook)

  2. Andrew Abbott Under 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed (-139 on Caesars Sportsbook)

  3. Elly De La Cruz Over 1.5 Total Bases (+100 on Bet 365 Sportsbook)

While there's always a risk that Encarnacion-Strand might come off the bench, his significance to the Reds' offense cannot be overlooked, especially in the absence of key players like Jake Fraley and Jonathan India. This dynamic further bolsters the case for considering Encarnacion-Strand as a potential home run threat.

To enhance the betting strategy, pairing the home run bet with Encarnacion-Strand's odds of recording multiple bases at +125 (44.4%) via BetMGM is a calculated approach that could yield substantial rewards.

Best MLB Home Run Bet:

  • Christian Encarnacion-Strand +560 at FanDuel Sportsbook

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