MLB Picks: Expert MLB Picks and Props for Tuesday, Aug. 29
Atlanta Braves at Colorado Rockies
A big part of handicapping baseball is navigating the value of the line as laying -150 or higher means you have to win at a significantly higher clip to profit. In this case, we have a huge road favorite in the Braves at -258 and -1.5 (-166), both are too high for my liking. As I dig into the lines, the first spot I usually look is the F5 team total as the Braves put up 14 runs in Coors Monday night (4 after F5).
The Braves are tops in runs per game first five innings at 3.6. This is the most optimal situation as the game total is 12 and the Braves are a huge favorite -258. The total has gone OVER five in a row at Coors and is 4-1 in the last five between both teams.
MLB Best Bets for Braves at Rockies
Braves -1.5 runs F5 for 1 unit (DraftKings -120)
Oakland Athletics at Seattle Mariners
The Mariners continued their two-month hot streak with a 7-0 whitewash of the A's Monday night. They are 5-0 in their last five against Oakland, 9-1 in their last 10 and 14-6 in their last 20. Seattle is 12-1 in its last 13 overall.
Oddsmakers have the Mariners at -320, which is better value on the run line than the Braves/Rockies by far. With George Kirby limiting baserunners and this game in Seattle, the under on Oakland is also in play. The A's have scored more than two runs just once in the season series, which the Mariners are dominating, 8-0 (44-13 total runs, 5.5-1.6).
MLB Best Bets for at
Mariners -1.5 runs for 1 unit (DraftKings -130)
Athletics UNDER 2.5 runs for 0.5 unit (DraftKings -105)
Milwaukee Brewers at Chicago Cubs
Normally, I would lean on one of my favorite system plays, which is lean toward the F5 UNDER when two aces are facing each other. But in this case, we get a total that was at 6.5 and got bumped up to seven. The 6.5 number was way too low, which explains the line move.
Corbin Burnes and Justin Steele have both pitched great this season, but the 3.5 F5 total leaves very little room. Both offenses are clicking and the Brewers are 9-1 to the OVER on their team total in the last 10. The Cubs are 7-3 to the OVER on their team total in their last 10.
Both pitchers have allowed at least two runs in their starts more times than not over their last seven starts (6/7 for Steele, 5/7 for Burnes). I am banking on a 2-2, 3-2 score after the first five to cash.
MLB Best Bets Brewers at Cubs
Brewers/Cubs OVER 3.5 runs F5 (DraftKings -115)
MLB Best Bets Recap
Braves -1.5 runs F5 for 1 unit (DraftKings -120)
Mariners -1.5 runs for 1 unit (DraftKings -130)
Athletics UNDER 2.5 runs for 0.5 unit (DraftKings -105)
Brewers/Cubs OVER 3.5 runs F5 (DraftKings -115)