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MLB Picks Tonight: Expert MLB Bets and Props for Wednesday, June 28

Washington Nationals at Seattle Mariners Best Bets: The Nationals' Patrick Corbin has been better overall by the numbers than in his previous two seasons thus far in 2023, but he's beginning to regress, as his set of expected metrics have essentially been predicting for some time now. Corbin carries a 4-9 record, 5.32 ERA, and 1.61 WHIP into Wednesday afternoon's start, but his .323 xBA, .385 xwOBA, and 6.40 xERA all indicate matters could be even worse.

Corbin has begun displaying some of those cracks in his last pair of starts, a sample in which he's pitched to a 9.00 ERA, 2.09 WHIP, 4.9 K/9, 4.1 BB/9, and 1.6 HR/9 across 11 innings. He's also been in poorest form on the road all season, pitching to a 6.34 ERA, 1.77 WHIP, 2.6 HR/9, and .396 wOBA across 38.1 innings.

The Mariners have been far from intimidating against lefties at home this season, as evidenced by a .224 average and .302 wOBA in that split. However, this is a day game, and Seattle's projected run total is at 5.4 and rising.

Ty France is also a very good Mariners hitter to zero in on in terms of predicting who might do some damage. The above-average contact hitter checks in with a .304 average over his last five games and a .356 average and .938 OPS versus southpaws across 77 plate appearances thus far this season. He's also been an outstanding hitter at home, where he owns a .295 average, 17 extra-base hits, and a .376 wOBA.

MLB Best Bets for Nationals at Mariners:

  • Mariners -0.5 - First three innings (-125 on DraftKings Sportsbook)

  • Ty France Over 1.5 Total Bases (+100 on BetMGM Sportsbook)

Detroit Tigers at Texas Rangers Best Bets: The Tigers' Joey Wentz is another left-hander who I can foresee trouble for Wednesday, especially with the Rangers' projected run total sitting at a massive 5.8 as of Wednesday morning. The southpaw has been struggling all season, pitching to a 1-8 record, 6.72 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, and 1.9 HR/9 overall. The road has been particularly harsh (1-5, 7.48 ERA, 1.59 WHIP, 2.3 HR/9), and Wentz is also allowing plenty of solid contact (10.8 percent barrel rate, 44.6 percent hard-hit rate surrendered).

The Rangers are about the worst-possible opponent for him on paper as well. Texas has been lethal against

Wednesday MLB Best Bets Recap:

  • Mariners -0.5 - 1st 3 innings (-125 on DraftKings Sportsbook)

  • Ty France Over 1.5 Total Bases (+100 on BetMGM Sportsbook)

  • Rangers -1.5 (-110 on Caesars Sportsbook)

  • Josh Jung Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBI (-140 on DraftKings Sportsbook)

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