top of page

NBA DFS Picks: FanDuel Plays and Strategy for Monday, April 29

INJURIES

 DEN Jamal Murray (calf) - QUESTIONABLE

It appears Murray sustained the injury during Saturday's game. Reggie Jackson ($3,800) would be in line for more minutes if Murray can't go.

ELITE PLAYERS

We have a familiar quarter of players with 10k-plus salaries atop Monday's player pool. When looking at the playability of the expensive elites, it's important to consider the depth of each position. Usually, one can justify taking Nikola Jokic out of the equation, and that's the case again tonight. To a lesser extent, one could say the same about Anthony Davis ($11,300), although his dual eligibility gives him more playability. With the Lakers up against it tonight, it would be foolish to count out LeBron James ($10,600), and he's going to outscore Shai Gilgeous-Alexander at the same price. Despite monster games on the horizon for Davis and Jokic, James is my pick at the top.

If you're fading Jokic, Bam Adebayo ($8,300) emerges as Miami's best option, and although I've steered clear of the Heat in this series, the center's salary is a little too good to pass up. The $100 discount for Chet Holmgren ($8,200) will be a less popular call, but I think the volume for Adebayo will be more dependable.

EXPECTED CHALK AND VALUE PLAYS

PELICANS vs. THUNDER

New Orleans is also in an elimination game tonight, and they will do their best to avoid a sweep on their home court. I like Brandon Ingram ($7,700), Trey Murphy ($7,000) and CJ McCollum($7,900), although I view McCollum as a bit of a reach at this salary. Herbert Jones ($5,700) is also a little high, and Jonas Valanciunas' ($6,600) rough outing in Game 3 makes him a bit too risky.  Ingram and Murphy will be stacked in several of my lineups.

Michael Porter, DEN ($7,100) vs. LAL

Although Aaron Gordon's ($6,800) heroic performance in Game 3 will make him a popular pick, Porter's numbers have been far more consistent than his counterpart. Although the team is optimistic about Jamal Murray's status, Porter's lowest number of the four games was 34.5 FDFPs, and the other three results blew past 5x value at this salary. 

D'Angelo Russell, LAL ($6,500) @ DEN

Call me crazy, but I'm going against the public and giving Russell a shot. Dreadful is a justifiable adjective to attach to Russell's playoff results in this series, but he was able to bounce back for 33.8 FDFPs in Game 4.  Russell's future with the Lakers probably depends on a good game to remain in the uniform, as James' patience with him seems to be at a breaking point. A higher salary would move me off of him, but $6,500 is just enough to take the risk.

Nikola Jovic, MIA ($5,000) vs. BOS

Jovic's salary is right where we want it, as he's beaten 5x value in every matchup during this series.  Jovic's exposure will likely be high, as he's no longer a secret at the budget level.

Luguentz Dort, OKC ($4,900) @ NOP

As we hunt for value further down the list, Dort provides decent upside with his ability to perform in spurts beyond the arc. He's connected 10 times from downtown during the series with eight in the past two games. I wouldn't expect miracles from Dort, but we need players at this level to afford multiple elites. Josh Giddey ($5,900) also has the tools to put up a good number, and I would pivot to him if I end up with an extra $1,000 to spare.

Also consider: Caleb Martin, MIA ($5,100) vs. BOS

The absence of Celtics in my endorsements is noticeable, but aside from Jayson Tatum ($9,800), the salaries didn't correspond well enough. I wouldn't rule the starters out, but you're paying extra for them in many cases.



9 views0 comments

Comments


bottom of page