Klay Thompson o3.5 three-pointers made (-130), PointsBet
According to props.cash, Klay Thompson has eclipsed this market number in 18 of 31 games played this season at the Chase Center. In 31 home games this season, Thompson is averaging 11.3 three-point attempts on 41.1% shooting, compared to 9.7 three-point attempts on 40.1% shooting in 25 road contests. Tonight, he gets a matchup against the Phoenix Suns, which rank 21st in opponent three-point attempts and ninth in opponent three-point percentage across the last month of action. This is not the most favorable matchup of all-time for Thompson, but he has proven over and over again that he is matchup-proof at home. Assuming he stays out of foul trouble this evening, he should have every opportunity to hit the over in this spot.
Deandre Ayton o18.5 points (-110), DraftKings
On Saturday, Deandre Ayton cashed us out in the third quarter, ending the game with 22 points on 15 field goal attempts against the Sacramento Kings. Tonight, Ayton gets a favorable matchup against the Golden State Warriors, which rank 23rd in opponent field goal percentage in the restricted area and 29th in opponent field goal percentage in the paint this season. This year, Ayton is averaging 12.2 field goal attempts per game, 10.5 of which are coming either in the restricted area or the paint. This is a great matchup for Ayton – trust him to get the job done for us.
De’Aaron Fox 25+ points (-140), FanDuel
During the month of February, De’Aaron Fox averaged 32.0 points on 20.0 field goal attempts per contest. In four games to begin the month of March, he has attempted at least 22 field goal attempts three times, twice scoring at least 25 points. This evening, Fox has a seemingly hostile matchup against a tough Milwaukee Bucks defense, but he may be the player best-equipped to do damage for the Sacramento Kings on Monday. Since February 1, Fox is averaging 8.0 field goal attempts in the paint per game. The Bucks rank 26th in opponent field goal attempts per game in the paint for the season and 29th in opponent field goal attempts per game in this area of the floor since the beginning of February. Fox has been much more efficient at home this year, shooting 53.0% from the field and 33.1% from beyond-the-arc, compared to 49.2% from the field and 31.9% from beyond-the-arc on the road. Buy a half point off of the default line on FanDuel here, but trust Fox to deliver to start the week on a high note.
Isaiah Livers O13.5 points vs. Indiana Pacers
As the Pistons tank/deal with a few injuries, Livers should be a primary offensive option for much of the week ahead, including Monday night's contest against a Pacers team that will also be without multiple regulars. Livers is coming off of an 18-point effort in 38 minutes against the Pacers on Saturday and should see similar opportunity against a diminished version of that same opponent. Detroit will be without Alec Burks, Bojan Bogdanovic, Jaden Ivey, Marvin Bagley, Isaiah Stewart, Hami Diallo and, of course, Cade Cunningham. Goodness.
IND Tyrese Haliburton (knee) - OUT
IND Myles Turner (back) - OUT
IND Buddy Hield (toe) - QUESTIONABLE
IND T.J. McConnell (back) - OUT
IND Bennedict Mathurin (back) - OUT
Definitely keep an eye on Hield's status, as he'll be quite valuable if active. Otherwise, the Pacers should be a grab bag of value. Andrew Nembhard ($4,900) will probably be one of the most popular values on the slate, but if you wanted to get a bit unique, Isaiah Livers ($4,900) is at the same salary and had a big game without Haliburton on the floor. If Hield sits, going to Jordan Nwora ($5,300) is a move worth considering.
DET Jaden Ivey (COVID-19) - OUT
DET Bojan Bogdanovic (Achilles) - OUT
DET Marvin Bagley (ankle) - OUT
DET Isaiah Stewart (shoulder) - OUT
DET Alec Burks (foot) - OUT
As you can see, the IND/DET game is where you're going to find plenty of value. You can't do much better than Killian Hayes ($6,400) for the Pistons. Unless they universally scratch their starters, Hayes should have a lot of the offense to himself. Even though Jalen Duren and James Wisemanwill see boosts in production, the two big men will probably split minutes, making them less appealing.
DAL Luka Doncic (thigh) - OUT
DAL Kyrie Irving (foot) - QUESTIONABLE
Your approach for the Mavericks is entirely dependent on Kyrie Irving's status. If he plays, I think you have to use him with Doncic out, but if he doesn't suit up, Tim Hardaway ($5,800) and Josh Green ($4,700) would see massive boosts. Jaden Hardy ($4,500) would also be a worthwhile dart throw if Irving is out.
MEM Ja Morant (personal) - OUT
MEM Steven Adams (knee) - OUT
Several Grizzlies will see boosts, but I feel like a lot of Memphis' usual suspects are appropriately priced. Tyus Jones ($7,700) is just a bit too high for my taste. I'm just not very enthusiastic about paying market prices in this spot.
MIL Giannis Antetokounmpo (hand) - QUESTIONABLE
If Giannis is out, I wouldn't target anyone specifically, but a universal pivot to the starters is probably a smart approach.