Kawhi Leonard over 1.5 steals (+105) vs. Warriors
Over the past month, the Warriors have the second-highest turnover rate in the NBA (16.2%), and they have the second-highest turnover rate on the road for the whole season (16.3%). Leonard has recorded at least one steal in 25 of the past 26 games, averaging 1.8 per game during this stretch. If this isn't the night for him to get two steals, I don't know what is.
D'Angelo Russell O22.5 points at Rockets This feels like a very friendly number for Russell, particularly with Anthony Davissitting out the second half of a back-to-back set. The Rockets are about as friendly an opponent as it gets, so it should be a nice bounceback spot for Russell, who went just 5-of-15 from the field in Tuesday night's blowout win over the Pelicans. Prior to that game he went for 28 and 33 points in back-to-back contests. I also like Russell O6.5 first-quarter points at plus money. 76ers -2.5 vs. Cavaliers I don't love the board tonight when it comes to spreads, but I do think this is a good spot for Philly, even on the road. The Sixers are rolling right now and catch the Cavs on the second night of a back-to-back without Jarrett Allen. Philly is 27-20-1 ATS as a favorite this season, while Cleveland is just 5-10 ATS as a dog. Both teams have plenty to play for, of course, but the Sixers are just 1.0GB of the Celtics for the No. 2 seed, so they'll be pushing hard to potentially overtake Boston.
Evan Mobley u10.5 rebounds (-135), DraftKings
In two matchups against the Philadelphia 76ers this season, Evan Mobley has totaled eight rebounds and nine rebounds, respectively. Entering play on Wednesday, the 76ers rank fourth-best in team rebounding percentage and have allowed the fewest opponent rebounds per game across the last month of action. On top of the tough opponent matchup, Mobley has been increasingly pulled away from the basket of late on the defensive end of the floor, which has limited his overall rebounding output. According to props.cash, Mobley has only eclipsed this market number in seven of his last 30 trips to the hardwood. Prior to each of his last two games, I have talked myself out of a bet on the under, but not tonight – expect him to fall shy of this market number once again.
Zach LaVine o2.5 three-pointers made (-140), PointsBet
Per props.cash, 10 of the last 17 guards to have a three-pointers made prop released against the Sacramento Kings have hit the over. Across the last 30 days, the Kings rank 27th in opponent three-point percentage allowed and 25th in opponent three-point percentage, making this a good matchup for LaVine, both from a volume and an efficiency perspective. LaVine has made multiple shots from beyond the arc in each of his five games played during the month of March, with only one game of fewer than seven attempts from deep. Assuming he has seven attempts this evening, LaVine should have little trouble hitting the over in this spot.
Paul George o2.5 three-pointers made (-145), PointsBet
Paul George is averaging 7.8 three-point attempts per game during his five trips to the hardwood so far in March. Yet, he has been uncharacteristically poor from an efficiency standpoint, shooting only 28.2% on such attempts. In his career, George is 38.2% from beyond the arc, including 37.3% this season. Tonight, he gets a matchup against the Golden State Warriors, which rank 20th in opponent three-point attempts and 13th in opponent three-point percentage across the last 30 days. Per props.cash, nine of the last 10 forwards to have a three-pointers made prop released against the Warriors have hit the over. Expect that trend to continue on Wednesday night.