Best NBA Bets Today - NBA Picks for Wednesday, January 25

Best Bets

Domantas Sabonis over 40.5 P+R+A vs. Raptors (-115)

I imagine this is a chalky bet. The Raptors have minimal size in the frontcourt, rolling with Pascal Siakam or Scottie Barnes as the nominal center. Sabonis should be able to crush the rebounding aspect of this bet, but I imagine he sees plenty of touches in the post, too, even if it's just to draw a double team and kick to an open shooter. When these teams played Dec. 14 in Toronto, Sabonis posted 21 points, 20 rebounds and seven assists in 40 minutes. This month, he's averaging 18.7 points, 13.1 boards and 9.4 dimes in 35.9 minutes.

OKC Thunder +1.5 vs. Atlanta Hawks The Thunder have become my go-to team the last few weeks, and for good reason. They've won six of their last eight straight up and continue to move further and further away from tanking territory. Tonight, they're home dogs to a Hawks team that's just 9-17 ATS as a favorite on the year. Meanwhile, the Thunder are one of the best dog teams in the league, going 24-10-1 ATS in those situations. The Hawks are 2-6 as road favorites while OKC is 9-5 as a home dog. Atlanta could also be without two of its top six players if DeAndre Hunter and Onyeka Okongwu – both questionable – cannot go. Brook Lopez O13.5 points vs. Denver Nuggets We may not think of the big man as a scorer, but he's posted at least 13 points in six of his last eight and gone over 13.5 five times in that span. I'm skeptical as to whether Nikola Jokicplays tonight on the second leg of a B2B, but either way, this should be a high-minute game for Lopez with Bobby Portis sidelined due to an MCL injury. With Serge Ibaka essentially quitting on the team, the Bucks are basically out of options behind Lopez at center, other than Giannis Antetokounmpo, of course. Jaren Jackson under 8.5 rebounds (-150) at Golden State I'm 13-10 on the year, but facing a four-night slide, so feel free to fade. Let's turn things around by banking on Jaren Jackson's soft inside game. Yes, he's a great shot blocker. But he refuses to bang inside for boards. Much of this, on offense, is due to him hanging out on the perimeter hoping to hit a three. Jackson is averaging 6.6 rebounds per game, but tonight's figure jumps to 8.5 because Steven Adams is out. Here's the thing, on Monday when Adams was out, Jackson grabbed five boards versus Sacramento. And the Kings rank 23rd in rebounds per game. The Warriors, tonight's foe, rank 13th (51.8) in the Association. Fred VanVleet over 20.5 points (-105) at Sacramento FVV is on a bit of a heater, averaging 31.3 points per game over his last four contests. Frankly, after a slow start to the season, he's due. The Raptors face the Kings tonight, who rank 9th in the Association in possessions per game. Toronto ranks a slow 26th, but the Kings will force a quicker-than-usual game for Toronto. The game has a fairly high 239 O/U, which also bodes well for VanVleet to score. Finally, OG Anunoby is questionable with an ankle issue. He'll probably play, but a slower Anunoby should mean additional shots for FVV.