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Best NBA Bets Today - Tuesday, March 28

P.J. Washington over 22.5 points + assists (-110) at OKC

Charlotte's injury report is still partially in flux, but Terry Rozier and Mark Williams have already been ruled out, while Gordon Hayward is doubtful and Kelly Oubre is questionable. Washington has taken on an expanded role over the past three games amid the absences, averaging 22.3 points on 21.3 shots and 3.0 assists in 32.0 minutes. The Thunder are also without great frontcourt defenders, so Washington shouldn't meet heavy resistance.

Trey Murphy over 1.5 steals (+175) at Golden State The Warriors continue to be one of the sloppiest teams in the NBA and have the highest TOV% in the NBA over the past month (15.8%). Murphy isn't the best defender on the Pelicans and doesn't put up gaudy steals numbers, but I think nearly 2-to-1 odds on him to get multiple swipes against Golden State is good value. The wing has been in the starting five over the past 12 games, seeing 35.5 minutes and racking up 1.3 steals per matchup. More than anything, I like that he'll be on the floor a ton and has the wingspan and athleticism to jump passing lanes.

Wendell Carter over 9.5 rebounds (-134) at Memphis Memphis has struggled on the boards ever since Steven Adams got hurt, and over the past month, they rank as the third-worst defensive rebounding team and sixth-worst offensive rebounding team by rebound percentage. Carter has three straight games of single-digit rebounding (9, 8 and 6), but this represents a good bounce-back spot for the center, who is averaging 9.8 boards per game since the All-Star break.

OG Anunoby over 2.5 threes (+110) vs. Heat The Heat, who will be without Jimmy Butler, have allowed the most corner three-point attempts in the league over the past month (14.3% of opponent shot attempts). Without Butler's wing defense, that could get even worse. While Anunoby doesn't own the corner, he rents there, taking 17% of his looks from the side -- the highest mark on the Raptors of anyone who has seen over 600 minutes. In March, he's averaging 3.0 threes overall on 6.3 attempts per game.

Jalen Williams O30.5 PTS+REB+AST vs. Hornets With no Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, it'll be the Williams and Josh Giddey show tonight as the Thunder take on a heavily depleted Hornets team. Williams has gone over this number in four of his last six games without SGA, including one he finished with exactly 30.0 PTS/REB/AST.

Jaylen Brown over 25.5 points at Washington (-125) Simply put, Brown is on a heater and Washington's defense is mediocre. Brown has averaged 32.1 points over his last seven games. Washington gives up 113.8 points per game, which ranks 16th in the Association. Washington is also missing rim protector Daniel Gafford, leaving 37-year-old Taj Gibson to start at center. I think the Celtics will have fun driving to the bucket, don't you? Boston head coach Joe Mazzulla has also been giving his starters big minutes lately to prepare them for the playoffs. Brown has averaged 35.9 minutes per game over those seven contests, despite a few blowouts. I'm a pedestrian 25-21 on the year, so feel free to fade me.


P.J. Washington Over 5.5 First Quarter Points (+110)

The Hornets have struggled this season and are relying heavily on Washington to provide scoring as of late. Washington is averaging 5.7 points per game in the first quarter this season, and he can hit the over in this game against the Oklahoma City Thunder.


Miami Heat vs. Toronto Raptors Over 220 (-115)

The total is set at 220, which seems a little sharp, but that doesn’t factor in where Miami has outscored its projected team totals, especially on the road where they get shorted a lot. With Toronto’s and Miami’s desperation to climb out of the Play-In Tournament, over 220 is a solid bet. You cannot overstate the importance of these teams getting over this little hill here and into a more definitive playoff spot.


Dejounte Murray Under 28.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-115)

The Atlanta Hawks are playing the Cleveland Cavaliers, and Cleveland will win this game on the strength of more of a defensive effort. Murray is averaging nearly 31 points + rebounds + assists per game this season, but the Cavaliers are the worst matchup in the NBA for over props.


While Golden State has the potential to be one of the best teams on any given night, the Pelicans have been playing better lately, and they can keep this game close. The Pelicans are coming off a big win over the Los Angeles Clippers, and they will be able to carry that momentum into this game against the Warriors.

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